A ‘dress rehearsal’ for grid of the future
Solar eclipse offers U.S. power sector a chance to test plants, software, markets
Turns out the solar eclipse, set to plunge parts of the U.S. into total darkness on Monday, will offer exactly what the power sector’s been looking for: a completely predictable stage for experiments.
It’s not often that power grid operators, utilities and electricity generators get such precise and advance notice about more than 12,000 megawatts of solar power supplies set to suddenly drop off their systems.
And some are looking forward to it — as a means of testing plants, software and markets refined in recent years in anticipation of the day when renewable energy becomes the world’s dominant source of power.
The way David Shepheard, managing director at consultant Accenture Plc, sees it: The eclipse is the “forecastable dress rehearsal” for the grid of the future.
It’ll be the perfect test, he says, “for operating the grid when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow.”
Charlie Gay, director of the U.S. Energy Department’s SunShot Initiative, expects the eclipse to provide instant validation for power forecasting models being developed.
The department is working with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and grid operators to improve software controls that balance supply and demand as the continent goes dark.
“It gives us a test for the models,” he said. Using satellite data and maps of solar plant locations, the group expects to be able to match forecasts with what actually occurs before, during and after the eclipse.
Grid operators including PJM Interconnection LLC and Southwest Power Pool are similarly using the eclipse to measure exactly how much rooftop solar is on their systems and improve their supply models for the next eclipse in 2024.
The proliferation of smart meters, energy management equipment and software has helped provide power-line operators better data on the homes and businesses they supply.
Some utilities can now control their customers’ air conditioners using remote devices, helping them curb demand during extreme weather.
The need for such software and technology has only grown as rooftop solar panels increasingly turn consumers into mini-generators. “Smart” inverters can now help balance the voltage and frequency coming from solar panels.
Grids and utilities “are quite frankly becoming tech companies” in their need to crunch big data to operate more efficiently, and this eclipse “is a little bit like Y2K,” said Austin Whitman, director of regulatory affairs at FirstFuel Software Inc. in Boston.
The event is going to give grid operators a chance to fine-tune their tool kit for dealing with big wind and solar fluctuations, the Energy Department’s Gay said. Battery storage may end up playing a bigger role because it offers more flexibility, Accenture’s Shepheard said.
Utilities including PG&E Corp. and Edison International will also be relying on natural gas-fired power plants and hydropower resources to pick up the slack when the moon blocks the sun and solar power’s wiped out.
The event is coming at an opportune time for California to flex its hydropower muscle. Snow is melting and hydro is plentiful. The flood of quick supplies is what the state is hoping to dispatch to fill a 6,000-megawatt void of solar energy.
In North Carolina, a part of which will see total darkness during the eclipse, Duke Energy Corp. expects about 2,000 megawatts, or 80 per cent, of utility-scale solar farms to go off-line.
The utility will treat it like a “gradual sunset,” said spokeswoman Tammie McGee, estimating that as much as 1,200 megawatts of gas generation will help pick up the slack.
Those within the path of the shadow may feel a six-degree drop in temperatures, probably not enough to affect gas demand, according to WTRG Economics. “But power companies will be busy for a half-hour or so trying to balance the load,” the energy research firm said.