Analyst predicts Olympic medal counts
Simon Gleave is piecing together results from his statistical model to predict the top medal-winning countries for next year’s PyeongChang Winter Olympics.
He has one large problem: will Russia be in, out, or somewhere in between?
Gleave, the head of analysis for Gracenote Sports, created a virtual medal table on the assumption Russia’s full team will participate and not be subject to a doping ban.
“At the moment we assume with everything we’re doing that Russia is in,” Gleave said.
The International Olympic Committee said it hopes to decide on Russian eligibility in December with the Olympics opening Feb. 9. But it may drag right up to the eve of the games, as it did last year in Rio de Janeiro.
On Wednesday, Olympic officials in PyeongChang marked 100 days to go until the opening ceremony.
With Russia in, Gleave predicts Germany will win the most gold medals, and the most overall. Germany is predicted to win 14 golds and 35 overall, followed by Norway with 12 gold and 32 overall.
The U.S. is next with 10 gold and 29 overall. Canada is predicted to win 31 overall, more than the Americans but with fewer gold.
The Canadian Olympic Committee has not publicly stated its goal for PyeongChang. The Canadian team took home 25 medals from the Sochi Olympics, including 10 gold. Gleave is projecting just five Canadian golds this time.
Gleave projects those golds to come from men’s and women’s curling, freestyle skier Mikael Kingsbury, snowboarder Max Parrot and the men’s hockey team. He’s predicting Canada’s championship run in women’s hockey will end with the U.S. taking gold. He also has two-time gold medallist bobsledder Kaillie Humphries finishing second.
Accustomed to dealing with the unpredictable, Gleave said men’s hockey will be tougher to predict, since NHL players will not participate. He predicts Canada will defeat Sweden in the gold-medal game while Russia will take bronze.