Raptors’ hopes riding on Lowry’s wobbly back
Healthy point guard running the offence still the likeliest path to playoff success
The question hadn’t even been asked when Kyle Lowry answered it.
“I’m playing, I’ll be honest with you,” the Raptors point guard said, still settling into a courtside chair at Wells Fargo Center before a Tuesday morning shootaround. With a Bob’s Burgers toque on his head — it’s a good show, you should check it out on Netflix — Lowry said he didn’t know why he was listed as doubtful for Wednesday night’s game in his hometown against the 76ers. He was always intending to play, he said.
But for how long and wearing what jersey?
On Tuesday morning, the explanations were simple: Lowry’s tender back, the source of a dozen missed games this season, was sore on Sunday morning, so he was held out of the afternoon matchup at home against the Los Angeles Clippers. It was a precautionary thing, Lowry said, a case of making sure things didn’t get worse. Coming in a season in which the Raptors have been ultracautious with Kawhi Leonard and in which the league in general has been all about rest and recovery, when “load management” no longer refers to making sure you have properly secured a truckload of lumber, this all made sense.
“That’s just the evolution of health and understanding our bodies,” Lowry said. “Just understanding what’s best for your body and sleep doctors and all that stuff. You just make sure you’re ready for prime time when it comes down to it.”
Raptors head coach Nick Nurse said he was pleased to have Lowry back, and he talked about how important it would be to have his point guard being a primary scorer again and doing all those little things he does.
But by Tuesday afternoon, word had seeped out that Lowry was among the players in trade discussions ahead of Thursday’s NBA deadline. So, he’s either an essential part of the Raptors’ plans to contend this season, or he’s on the move. One or the other.
Trade talks are often meaningless. The rumours floated on Tuesday, which had Lowry and injured centre Jonas Valanciunas in a potential swap for guard Mike Conley and centre Marc Gasol from Memphis, was just this side of plausible. But the fact that the possibility of such a blockbuster couldn’t be dismissed out of hand is, at the least, further proof that the continuing issues with Lowry’s back, and his wonky shooting, have thrown a lot of doubt into a Raptors season that has so much riding on it.
As this franchise rose through successive strong regular seasons and various levels of disappointment in the playoffs, the team acquired a well-earned reputation as post-season underachievers, with Lowry and his one-time sidekick, DeMar DeRozan, sharing much of that burden.
For a time, Lowry was inexplicably poor in the playoffs, and with many data points to choose from, the nadir was probably the first-round series against Indiana in 2016, when he shot 16 per cent from three-point range, and after one home loss, went back on the court late at night to hoist jump shots, hoping to find something in front of nothing but an arena full of empty seats.
But those playoff-shooting jitters were a long time ago. He was much improved against Miami and Cleveland in that 2016 run, and has largely kept up that form in the seasons since. Somewhat lost in last year’s spring flameout was that Lowry shot 44 per cent from distance against Washington and then 46 per cent from that range against Cleveland, even as the team as a whole was once again being casually destroyed by LeBron James.
Toronto’s offence has never been about finding Lowry his shots, but he’s been an ace shooter. As Sportsnet’s Michael Grange noted recently, the list of NBA players in the three seasons prior to this one who attempted at least three 3-pointers per game while hitting at least 39 per cent of them includes just three guys: Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Kyle Lowry.
And so, as much as the Raptors have been transformed this season by the additions of Leonard and Danny Green and the emergence of Pascal Siakam, their potential for a deep playoff run depends a lot on Lowry being healthy, and being the reliable performer of more recent post-seasons. Could management be considering a trade because they aren’t confident that he’ll soon return to being both of those things?
If he stays, his chances for a strong finish depend a lot on Lowry getting more familiar with all those new guys.
Nurse acknowledged on Tuesday that the Raptors are about at the point in the season where they can’t allow too many more precautionary rests.
“We’ve had a lot of guys out,” Nurse said. “So there’s already some built-in rest. So, we’re probably leaning (toward) getting them together a little bit more.”
If Lowry’s back doesn’t regress and the team gets Valanciunas back from a lengthy absence this week, as expected, then the Raptors’ battleship will, finally, be fully operational. Nurse said he would expect to be running his full lineup out as many nights as he could.
And that means many opportunities for Lowry to sort out the issues that have plagued him this season, where he’s been an uncharacteristic 32 per cent 3-point shooter and has had more than a few ice-cold nights.
The coach said he’ll need Lowry to be, as he has been, one of the key scorers for his team. Despite the trade rumours, that remains the likeliest path for playoff success for this group of Raptors.
“I would still put his presence, his running of the team, and just his spirit, above primary scorer or shooting,” Nurse said. “Kyle is one of the guys who can play a really good game and still go 2-for-10 from the field.”
That’s fair enough. The Raptors did win that series against Indiana, when Lowry shot 7-for-43 from distance. It’s just not something they want to try again.