SNC affair: What should Scheer do?

Opportunity knocks for Tory leader, Andrew Pinsent says.

The second week in February was likely a time Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives were least expecting a Christmas gift.

But during a typical, frigid week in Ottawa and a somewhat quiet time in federal politics, with the House of Commons on break, the Prime Minister’s Office handed the Scheer Tories a shiny scandal.

Jody Wilson-Raybould, once held up by the Liberals as a symbol of diversity — she was Canada’s first Indigenous justice minister — has quickly become a thorn in the side of Justin Trudeau and threatens to hurt his re-election chances come October.

Her resignation from cabinet came just one day after the prime minister tried to deflect criticism his office may have tried to influence her decision in a case involving SNC-Lavalin when she was still justice minister and attorney general, a role from which she had been moved in a recent shuffle. At the time, he told reporters he had full confidence in Wilson-Raybould and “her presence in cabinet should actually speak for itself.”

But her resignation, his ever-changing story and Sunday’s surprise resignation of top adviser Gerald Butts has said more. The ethics commissioner has launched an investigation, which could take months, but the political fallout has begun in earnest, with both opposition parties circling.

Nothing has been proven, but with an election looming English philosopher Aldous Huxley sums it up best: “There are things known and there are things unknown, and in between are the doors of perception.”

While Scheer and his Conservatives have spent months looking for a “door” to victory, sticking to the right-of-centre and even sometimes the fringes, Trudeau has now handed Scheer the middle ground to be mined for support — an empty net late in the third, despite the game being tied.

Scheer had already been gaining ground in a number of surveys over the past six months, including in an Abacus Data year-end assessment, which found government approval slightly down and disapproval slightly up. At the start of the year, Abacus also found 40 per cent would like to see Scheer become prime minister.

Centre-minded voters will likely find it hard to support a leader and party who has pounded the drum for the middle class, but who, in the background, may have been courting Canada’s most powerful and corporate beings to keep them out of trouble.

The problem Scheer faces, however, is that he has handled every issue (and non-issue) the same: He would do the opposite of Trudeau, and everything is a scandal. This makes it harder for voters to separate the real issues from the “faux outrage” and give him credibility.

That’s not to say Scheer is the only leader ever to overplay his hand, as it was fairly frequent for the NDP and Liberals when Stephen Harper occupied 24 Sussex Drive.

But given the frequency with which Scheer and his MPs have called for investigations and displayed outrage over not-so-serious matters, this will no doubt present centre-minded voters with a question: “Is this really THAT serious? Or is this just more grandstanding?”

Just as some voters would choose a red or orange houseplant against any Conservatives up for election, the same is true on the other side of the spectrum, so Scheer needs to keep independents in mind. He’s already won the anti-Trudeau crowd.

Former prime minister Jean Chrétien, known as a master of the middle ground in politics, spoke of the perils of too much criticism at a 2015 event, noting that as a political leader “... if you speak too much, no one will listen to you. It’s better to keep yourself for an important occasion.”

Similarly, my mom (our household PM) always repeated the adage “it’s better to remain silent and thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.”

Scheer needs to be careful he’s not shooting himself in the foot. He needs to let Trudeau do the damage himself.

The House of Commons resumed sitting again this week, and the twists and turns have continued in the Wilson-Raybould/SNC-Lavalin affair.

The federal election is Oct. 21. Stock up on popcorn. It’s going to be a doozy of a year in Canadian politics.

(As a political leader) if you speak too much, no one will listen to you. It’s better to keep yourself for an important occasion. Former prime minister Jean Chrétien