REDBLACKS, ARGOS HAVE LOTS ON LINE
Saturday’s East Division showdown a big one for both teams’ playoff hopes
Stats don’t lie, right?
The CFL standings show the Toronto Argonauts (with just one win) and Ottawa Redblacks (with a whopping three wins) are two of the league’s worst three teams, with the one-win B.C. Lions also in the mix.
The CFL Simulation posted on the league’s website this week predicts the Argos will wind up with a 3-15 record, the Redblacks at 7-11. Ottawa’s odds of getting to the Grey Cup are listed at 0.22 per cent, while B.C. and Toronto are both at 0.01 per cent.
Not exactly promising, right? But the CFL Simulation is a statistical toy dealing in probabilities. It wouldn’t have given the Redblacks much of a chance of winning the Grey Cup back in 2016. They finished the regular season with an 8-9-1 record, then won the Cup.
With another loss or two, it’ll be time to stick a fork in the Argos, who probably have to win at least seven, maybe all, of their remaining eight games. So this week’s matchup between the
East Division rivals is a big deal. And with Jonathon Jennings replacing Dominique Davis as the Redblacks’ starting quarterback, Ottawa hopes to — make that needs to — beat the Argos on Saturday (1 p.m.) at TD Place.
“We have to win each week, it doesn’t matter who the opponent is,” said Jennings. “You can’t take anyone lightly. We have go out and win the football game; they’re not going to give it to us.”
“We know Ottawa is going to come in and give us everything they’ve got because they’re in the same boat we are,” Argos quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson said. “No one wants to be in the basement and this is the grudge match to get out of it. When you see that many losses (for the Argos) and not very many wins, you have to think it’s now or never. We know to get back to .500, we have to win them all. But you can’t win them all until you win the first one, so this is our championship, it’s our most important game.”
Not all is as it seems with the Argos. It’s hard to believe they’ve got just one win — it has been a combination of bad luck, some sloppy football and a lack of consistency.
“If you watch their game film and don’t look at their record, they’re a good football team,” Redblacks coach Rick Campbell said. “Their last two weeks, you could make the case that they should have beaten Hamilton and they should have beaten Montreal. They haven’t been able to get on the right side of the scoreboard, but they’re not a bad football team. It’s going to be a tough game.
“It’s not a cliché in this league that anybody can beat anybody.
“We’re definitely in need of a win. I’ve always said every win is like gold. This is big, we want to get back in the winning column. Five of our last eight games are against B.C. and Toronto. I don’t say we need to beat them because they’re not good football teams, but it’s a fact — in the CFL, you have to beat three teams out (to make the playoffs). The odds are that would be two of them.”
The Redblacks, who let wins over Calgary and Edmonton slip away, have done plenty of good things defensively and on special teams. But the offence has struggled to find consistency and an identity. Ottawa is ranked last in the CFL in second-down conversions (40.8 per cent), first downs (172), time of possession (average of 25:38), points off turnovers (96, by comparison Calgary has just 24), 30-plus-yard pass completions (nine), average gain per pass (6.6 yards) and passing touchdowns (an unbelievably low seven).
“I think it’ll start to turn around for us this game,” said Redblacks receiver Dominique Rhymes. “It can get frustrating, but we know if we work hard every day it’s going to click. And once it clicks, it’ll be something we’re proud of. This game is going to be a dogfight, it’s going to be a good game. We’re looking for a momentum builder to start us onto something great.”
The Redblacks have won just once since June 20, a 30-27 overtime decision in Montreal early last month.
“We’ve had a really tough stretch,” Redblacks offensive lineman Evan Johnson said. “All the pieces are here, that’s the most frustrating part of it. We’re not capitalizing when we have opportunities.”
While the Argos have just one win — that came against the West’s first-place Winnipeg Blue Bombers — they’ve shown they can hang around in games. Bethel-Thompson can sling it and they’ve got some great pass-catching weapons.
“We know how good we are, we know when we play good, efficient football there’s not a defence out there that has a chance,” said Bethel-Thompson. “We’re very frustrated, but we see the potential, we see what can be. That’s what’s keeping us alive and keeping us working. We have a crazy amount of talent and we have the ability to be the best team in the league, it’s just whether we can put it all together and play a complete game.”
“There have been times when we played pretty good,” said Argos coach Corey Chamblin. “You look at some of the things that have happened to us, it’s been unusual. If the football gods get on our side, we can go where we need to go. Things are starting to turn our way. Time is of the essence. Really it was yesterday we needed to get it rolling. (The Redblacks) have had their struggles as well. Everyone wants to say each one is a must win. We’re in a different place right now, it’s about keeping the hopes and dreams alive to extend the season. You can’t be counted out until it’s over. I told the guys,
‘You have to fight all the way until the finish.’ ”
THE END AROUND: Ottawa’s Michael O’Connor, drafted by the Argos this year, is listed as the team’s fourth-string QB for Saturday’s game . ... Other familiar faces to Ottawa football fans: kicker Tyler Crapigna, receiver Kurleigh Gittens Jr. and offensive lineman Tyler Holmes, who are all from here, and former Redblacks punter Ronnie Pfeffer, defensive lineman Cleyon Laing and DB Abdul Kanneh . ... Stephane Nembot is listed as the Redblacks’ right tackle, but a final decision on whether he plays will be made Saturday . ... Late Thursday, the CFL got around to announcing that former Carleton Ravens star DB Tunde Adeleke (who’s from Ottawa and now plays for Hamilton) was given a maximum fine after pushing an official against the Argos on Monday. And, in a fine from the previous week, Saskatchewan’s Cameron Judge was fined for a tourist hit on Redblacks offensive lineman Alex Mateas.
We’re very frustrated, but we see the potential, we see what can be. That’s what’s keeping us alive and keeping us working.