BENGALS LEAD NFL RACE TO BOTTOM OF STANDINGS
Sad field of five teams most likely to snag NFL’s No. 1 pick, writes Neil Greenberg.
WASHINGTON The basement of the NFL is a crowded place. At the very bottom are the Cincinnati Bengals, still winless through eight games. Next come the one-game winners, a sad quartet including the Miami Dolphins, Washington Redskins, Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets. One of those five teams will almost certainly be awarded the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NFL draft, an especially coveted prize in 2020, with multiple potential franchise quarterbacks on the board.
As you would expect, the 0-8 Bengals now have the inside track for the No. 1 pick, supplanting the Dolphins, who upset the Jets on Sunday.
Based on their true talent level — derived by looking at actual win rate, projected win rate based on total points scored and allowed, and a regressed win rate that accounts for the small sample size of eight or nine games — we can project the season 1,000 times and find Cincinnati is the team most likely of those five to finish the 2019 campaign with the worst record in the NFL. That methodology gives them a 31 per cent chance at landing the No. 1 pick in 2020, assuming the pick goes to one of the current bottom five.
The Jets have the worst chance at the top pick of those five teams, despite only one win through the first nine weeks of the season, due to a soft upcoming schedule that includes games with the New York Giants (2-7), Redskins, Oakland Raiders (4-4), Bengals and Dolphins over the next few weeks.
The Bengals have already embraced the non-winning process by benching starting quarterback Andy Dalton for rookie Ryan Finley. Plus, star wideout A.J. Green has already missed the first eight games with an ankle injury and didn’t practice on Wednesday, souring earlier optimism about a potential return. Also missing practice for Cincinnati were cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick (knee), guard Alex Redmond (knee/ankle) and tight end Tyler Eifert (non-injury related).
The Bengals are 10-point underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens this week, indicating another loss and an 0-9 start are likely on the horizon. Getting the opportunity to pick No. 2 isn’t bad, either, and you could argue the third pick in this draft also offers a team the opportunity to quickly upgrade its future.
Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, Oregon’s Justin Herbert and possibly LSU’s Joe Burrow have all been touted as future franchise quarterbacks available in next year’s draft, making the race to the bottom of the standings a lucrative one.
Tagovailoa led Alabama to a national title as a true freshman in 2018 and has the highest passer rating out of a clean pocket (154.4) in 2019, per the game charters at Pro Football Focus.
Herbert and the Ducks haven’t been consistent this season, but the senior has completed
200 of 288 passes (69 per cent completion rate) for 2,329 yards, 24 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Burrow, who has starred for top-ranked LSU, keeps rising up mock draft boards
If you assume the bottom five will monopolize the top three picks in 2020, the Bengals now look like a virtual lock to nab one of those three picks (a 78 per cent chance) with the Dolphins, Falcons and Redskins fighting for the other two spots.
In the event of a tie, the team that played an inferior set of opponents (as measured by overall win-loss record) gets the better pick. As things stand, Miami and Washington would edge out Atlanta in case of a tie.
NFL TEAMS INTERESTED IN SIGNING BROWN
Making money off my sweat and blood (expletive) the @nfl I’ll never play in that (expletive) treat black people the worse!
Antonio Brown let loose with a profanity-filled tweet aimed at the NFL on Thursday, one week before he’s scheduled to meet with the league to discuss the investigation into allegations of sexual assault and rape made against the wide receiver in a civil suit earlier this year.
“My understanding is Brown is eager to present his side & that there r teams still interested in signing him pending the resolution of the league’s investigation,” ESPN reporter Josina Anderson tweeted on Thursday morning.
Hours later, Brown took to social media to vent his frustration with the league.
“Imagine conforming to a system giving it a 100 per cent to see them treat me like this is unfairly!” Brown wrote on Twitter. “Making money off my sweat and blood (expletive) the @nfl
I’ll never play in that (expletive) treat black people the worse! Clear my name and go (expletive) your self.”
Brown, 31, initially tweeted on Sept. 22 that he “will not be playing in the NFL anymore.”
That tweet came two days after the New England Patriots released him.
The NFL released a statement on Sept. 20 that said Brown would not be placed on the commissioner’s exempt list while he’s a free agent but warned: “If he is signed by a club, such placement may become appropriate at any time depending on the status of the investigation.”
Brown was cut by the Oakland Raiders on Sept. 7 and then signed with the Patriots. He played in one game, catching four passes for 56 yards and a touchdown in New England’s 43-0 win at Miami on Sept. 15.
The four-time All-Pro has been under investigation by the NFL under its personal conduct policy since former trainer Britney Taylor filed a lawsuit in September alleging that she was sexually assaulted on multiple occasions.
In 10 NFL seasons (the first nine with the Pittsburgh Steelers), Brown has 841 catches for 11,263 yards and 75 touchdowns.