Restaurant industry braces for COVID-19 bite in business
A major restaurant industry group says it’s bracing for a drop in business as the novel coronavirus pandemic grows in Canada and experts warn of the perils of crowded places.
Restaurants Canada, with 30,000 members in the food-service sector, expects this week’s economic downturn alone will drag down dining in the country.
Then there’s the likelihood that social distancing — generally accepted as the best strategy to slow the spread of the virus — will push diners to eat at home.
Restaurants Canada spokesman James Rilett said the association has no idea how bad the impact might be. “Things are changing almost by the hour. But it definitely will have a significant impact,” he said. “Even our economist couldn’t really give any kind of prediction at this point.”
An early Restaurants Canada survey of members, conducted in the first half of February, showed that at that point, only Asian restaurants were seeing drops in sales. One regional chain reported a 20-per-cent decline, Rilett said, adding that he expects the next survey will show a much broader impact across the sector.
“Even before this all hit, there were some clouds on the horizon with the high debt loads of Canadians,” he said.
Now Canadian restaurant operators are considering reducing how many diners they let in at once, as well as how close their tables are to one another, Rilett said.
Restaurants Canada has daily calls with public health officials, and passes on guidance to members. The current advice is to stick to the industry’s already high cleaning standards.
If the U.S. is a preview of things to come, restaurants in the hardest-hit areas have been deserted. In Seattle, for instance, a group of 13 restaurants run by the celebrated chef Tom Douglas closed for an expected eight to 12 weeks after sales declined by 90 per cent.
“I am sad for our city. It’s tough going for Seattle now,” Douglas told the Seattle Times.
The problem isn’t with all restaurants, just crowded ones, according to Isaac Bogoch, an associate professor at the University of Toronto School of Medicine who specializes in infectious diseases.
“If you’re talking about a restaurant where people are packed together, that’s not social distancing. That’s a lot of people under one roof, with a common door knob, a common bathroom,” he said.
“If you prevent people from congregating in large gathering, you can reduce the risk of transmission. And it works. It’s working well. It’s working in Korea. It’s worked in Hong Kong.”
Dining out in busy restaurants only becomes a risk when the virus is spreading through the community freely. If restaurants keep people farther apart, clean regularly and make sure staff aren’t sick, there’s less risk.
“We’re not seeing widespread community transmission yet in Canada. This is going to change with time,” Bogoch said. “Today, I’d have no problem going out. But when we’re starting to see more and more cases of this, I personally would not go sit in a packed restaurant.”
Buffets and hot tables are also a concern.
“I’d be a little nervous about those,” Bogoch said. “You’ve got common food sources, that’s how things rip through cruise ships ... I wouldn’t be surprised if we see fewer of those open when we start to see more and more cases.”
Grocery stores are also making tweaks. The boutique Toronto grocery chain McEwan Foods is providing customers with wipes to sanitize their baskets and buggies. And Empire Co. Ltd., the second-largest grocery chain in Canada with banners like Sobeys, FreshCo and Safeway, has stopped food sampling.
Meanwhile, grocery delivery apps Instacart and Inabuggy say they have noticed a major uptick in orders. Both services are also offering to drop grocery orders on the doorstep, so customers never have to interact with another person.
Instacart said its customer growth rate has increased 10 times this month. At Inabuggy, order volume increased by 35 to 40 per cent in the last three weeks. Financial Post