GRIM PROJECTIONS

Ottawa cases of COVID-19 doubling every four days; more critical care beds needed

If we stay the course, between

3,000 & 15,000 could die in Ontario.

If we had done nothing, the death toll could have reached

100,000.

STAY HOME.

Ontario could have had up to 100,000 deaths by the end of April if it hadn’t decided on quick and decisive measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19, provincial public health officials said Friday.

Those actions have included shuttering entire industries, closing schools and enforcing physical distancing restrictions.

Current projections show the province will reach 80,000 cases and 1,600 deaths by April 30. If the province takes more extreme measures, those numbers could be cut to 12,500 cases and 200 deaths.

“Over 1,600 people could be dead by the end of April. That’s 50 a day, or that’s two people every hour. … We need to listen to what the data tells us. We need to take action,” said Premier Doug Ford, who announced the government was closing many more sectors of the economy as of midnight Saturday. They include all industrial and infrastructure construction, save for critical projects such as the building of hospitals and bridges.

Hardware and auto parts stores, office and computer suppliers and pet stores will be restricted to “alternative methods of sale” such as curbside pickup or delivery. Cannabis stores will not be considered essential workplaces, although online ones can continue to operate, as will beer, wine and liquor stores.

The additional closures will be in place for at least another 14 days.

Officials at all levels reinforced the message on Friday: Stay home, stay safe and keep your distance.

So far there have been 32 outbreaks in long-term care homes across Ontario, claiming 24 lives, since the pandemic began.

In Ottawa, the total of laboratory-confirmed cases was 289 as of Friday, including 37 new ones. Most of the new confirmed cases resulted from a backlogs of tests being cleared, said Dr. Brent Molughney, the city’s associate medical officer of health.

Generally, statistics for official diagnoses should be viewed with caution. Testing does not track down all cases in a community because the mild symptoms most people have aren’t distinguishable from common colds and because public health can’t test large numbers of people.

Mayor Jim Watson said bylaw officers, who have been handing out warnings so far, will start handing out fines to those who flout physical distancing rules by congregating in public spaces and homes. A ticket starts at $750, but totals $880 with the victim surcharge included. Meanwhile, the federal government announced it would spend $100 million to help feed “vulnerable” Canadians, and the military has been called to deploy to Quebec.

On the same day Premier Doug Ford revealed that 1,600 people could die from COVID-19 by the end of April, health officials in Ottawa said the virus will spread through the city at the same pace it’s moving provincially.

“The model that was provided by the province is consistent with the models that we see locally,” said Ottawa’s Associate Medical Officer of Health Dr. Brent Moloughney.

That information, he said, underlines how important it is for members of the public to work to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

“The most important thing is that it is really up to us in terms of deciding which curve we want to be on. We know if we don’t do the right thing we are going to be on an awful curve and the ICU (intensive care unit) and the hospital will be overwhelmed, so it makes a big difference.”

Numbers released by the Ontario government Friday predict Ontario could see between 3,000 and 15,000 deaths due to COVID-19 with the current public health measures it has taken — 1,600 by the end of April alone. Without those health measures, the death toll could have reached 100,000.

Among the starkest information released by the province was a chart showing the impact of COVID-19 on intensive care capacity across Ontario.

At the current growth rate of cases, ICU bed capacity in the province is set to run out next week without the addition of 900 beds — a planned expansion that Health Minister Christine Elliott said is well underway. Even with those additional beds, though, the province will just have enough critical-care bed capacity under a best-case scenario and intensive care units across the province would be quickly overwhelmed under a worst-case scenario.

In Ottawa, where there were 289 cases as of Friday and outbreaks at five facilities, 10 people with

COVID-19 are currently in intensive care. That is an increase of three from a day earlier.

Ottawa has the capacity to open about 304 critical care beds across the region, said Dr. Andrew Willmore, lead for the regional critical care co-ordination committee, and hospital officials are “actively working” at increasing that number. There are a total of 3,400 hospital beds in the Champlain Region, he said.

Willmore said as cases increase COVID-19 positive patients will be sent to a number of designated hospitals in the region with special units.

Hospitals are collaborating to make sure patients are cared for at the most appropriate centre in the region, he said, to “make sure we are ready for the surge of patients with COVID-19.”

In Ottawa, cases are currently doubling every four days.

Ontario will introduce more extreme measures to stop the spread of COVID-19, including closing some construction sites and limiting businesses to curb pickup or delivery.

Moloughney said the message of the provincial numbers is that “the best place for you and your families is at home.”

He discouraged people from visiting their cottages, something residents with cottages in Quebec are already forced to do because of measures being taken by the Quebec government.

“We want to discourage this and encourage people to stay home. Health-care systems in remote communities typically have less capacity.”

He also urged people to think carefully before taking loved ones out of long-term care and retirement homes because of fear of COVID-19 outbreaks, saying families must decide whether that would actually keep them safer.

Dr. Doug Manuel, an epidemiologist and senior scientist with the Ottawa Hospital Research Institute said creating accurate models to predict the growth of infectious diseases is difficult, especially for months down the road.

“Projecting COVID-19 is like forecasting a hurricane. You can’t reliably forecast the weather in six months or COVID-19 in six months.” Forecasts will be more accurate for a shorter range, he said, something local officials will work on based on the provincial data released Friday.

But while hurricanes can’t be prevented, Manuel said the worst effects of COVID-19 can be prevented if people strictly follow public health guidelines and stay home.