PANDEMIC PROJECTIONS

Perhaps the dismaying sight of police checking vehicles on the bridges between Ottawa and West Quebec will finally drive home the severity of the crisis. If not, maybe the fact that Ottawa bylaw officers are ordering people off park benches and can slap big fines on house-party hosts will do it.

And if those measures don’t work, the COVID-19 case projections published Friday by the Ontario government provide an even more chilling scenario.

According to those projections, if the province had done nothing to halt the spread of the pandemic, there would be 300,000 cases in Ontario by the end of April. Even with the widespread public health measures now in place, there could still be 80,000 cases by April 30. Astoundingly, even under current physical distancing measures, the number crunchers project 1,600 deaths in Ontario alone by April 30.

Had there been no public health measures, over the course of 18 months to two years, the projections point to 100,000 deaths in the province. With the current policies in place, the numbers range from 3,000 to 15,000 COVID -19 deaths in Ontario over that period.

Two points about such projections. First, they are just that — future possibilities, not destiny. Modelling of this type is a useful exercise if good data and sound assumptions are available, but is also an uncertain science, particularly the longer the timeline. This will comfort some and worry others.

Second, human agency can alter these potential outcomes. As Premier Doug Ford said Friday, the projections “can change with your actions and the government’s actions.” As he put it, the end of the story “is up to us.”

Clearly, governments are now transitioning from economic support and education to tougher enforcement. Inside of a few weeks, they have closed schools, shut down much of the economy, restricted normal movement and begun curbing civil liberties. Indeed, the documents Ontario officials made public Friday speak of potential “entry restrictions in some communities” (Ford suggested in a news conference that this would be logistically difficult; however, we see that Quebec hopes for some control both at its borders and internally); further reductions in what qualifies as “essential” work (Ontario on Friday virtually shut down the construction industry); enforcement and fines (in Ottawa, bylaw officers can now fine people for not adhering to the new rules around public behaviour and physical distancing).

Tougher love is coming. Or we can do the right thing without a further crackdown: Stay home, and stop the spread.