No telling how NHL draft will shake out
Lafrenière for sure will go No. 1, but NHL draft has depth
In the days leading up to the NHL draft in October, once positioning has been settled, the Ottawa Senators’ scouting staff will be studying every scenario that might happen in the first round.
Right now, with the virtual draft set for Oct. 9-10, it’s hard to predict.
While it’s a given the New York Rangers are going to use the
No. 1 overall selection to take winger Alexis Lafrenière of the QMJHL’s Rimouski Oceanic, the picture gets fuzzy from there.
The Los Angeles Kings have the second overall selection, so before Senators general manager Pierre Dorion and chief scout Trent Mann can settle on Ottawa’s pick, they’ll have to be patient and see what happens before them.
While there’s talk Kings general manager Rob Blake will select forward Tim Stuetzle from Mannheim of the Deutsch Elite League (Germany) with the No. 2 pick, there’s no way centre Quinton Byfield of the OHL’s Sudbury Wolves should be ruled out because many insiders believe that’s the way L.A. is leaning.
There’s a belief among league executives that Blake is being coy about his selection because he’d like to at least see if there’s anybody interested in acquiring the draft choice. The New York Rangers will listen to offers for the No. 1 pick, but Lafrenière won’t be dealt because the asking price would be too high.
The Senators have dismissed the ridiculous notion they’d deal the No. 3 and No. 5 selections to the Rangers for the top pick because that makes no sense in a draft this deep. Ottawa has the opportunity to get a couple of strong prospects with those picks that could suit up for the franchise for years.
“Everybody knows how good Lafrenière is. Is he (Alex) Ovechkin? I don’t know,” a league executive said Thursday. "He’s probably better than (Jonathan) Huberdeau and probably as good as (Mikko) Rantanen right now, who took awhile to get going.
“If you’re the Rangers, there’s also the media aspect and I know what that’s like when you’ve got the No. 1 pick, and the excitement that surrounds it.”
Those No. 3 and No. 5 selections are valuable to Ottawa. Plus the Senators have the first-round selection it received in the deal with the New York Islanders for centre Jean-Gabriel Pageau, which will be in the range of No. 21 as things now stand.
There will be no shortage of talent to choose from at No. 5. Defenceman Jamie Drysdale of the OHL’s Erie Otters and American blueliner Jake Sanderson could be available. Swedish winger Lucas Raymond, who may fit the bill for Ottawa, is also highly thought of by scouts.
“The key with Lafrenière is he’s going to be able to play right away, but if you did move back to get the No. 3 and No. 5 picks and you ended up with Stuetzle and maybe Drysdale or Sanderson? Five years down the road that could make a big difference. Those are high picks,” said the executive.
That’s why the Senators have dismissed the idea of moving those two selections.
As Senators owner Eugene Melnyk said earlier this month when it was reported there was talk Ottawa might consider trying to deal the No. 3 and No. 5 picks to the Rangers for the right to draft Lafrenière, it’s not going to happen.
“The idea of trading our 3rd and 5th picks for the No. 1 pick is nonsensical,” Melnyk said in an email to Postmedia on Aug. 18. “We’re very excited to welcome our many new Ottawa Senators that will come to us via the upcoming draft.”
Whether it’s Stuetzle or
Byfield, the Senators know they’re going to get a good player who has a chance to be a difference-maker for the franchise. There’s a sense among league executives that the Kings are trying to make everybody think they’ll select Stuetzle, but in the end they’ll choose Byfield.
It should be noted in his mock draft for TSN, the highly respected Craig Button, a former NHL general manager and the network’s director of scouting, had Byfield going second to the Kings with Stuetzle headed for the Senators.
“There’s just a really good group of players in this draft,” said the executive.
Even if it doesn’t work out that way, either player is a good fit for the Senators.
The 18-year-old Byfield had 32 goals and 82 points in 45 games with the Wolves last season and if he’s there at No. 3, he’d be a strong fit for Ottawa.
“At worst, you’re getting a No. 2 centre and you’re potentially getting a No. 1 centre,” the executive added. “He’s got strength, ability and he can really skate. There’s not a lot of risk in taking this guy because he’s been a prodigy for years. I’m not calling him Connor McDavid, but you’ve been hearing about Quinton Byfield in Ontario for literally years — not unlike John Tavares or Connor McDavid.”
As for Stuetzle, he’s been playing in a men’s league overseas where he finished with seven goals and 34 points with Mannheim.
“He makes quick plays, he’s smart, he’s got vision and he’s got skill,” the executive said. "(The DEL) is a pretty good place to evaluate guys.”
There will be plenty of speculation between now and the draft, but right now it’s nothing more than a guessing game because of all the uncertainty.