Humans beat computers in Series
Humans need to reclaim baseball's soul from the computers, writes Barry Svrluga.
At war Tuesday night at Globe Life Field weren't so much the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Tampa Bay Rays, who had a World Series to decide. Rather, the opposing forces: Computers vs. humans.
The humans won.
The L.A. Dodgers became World Series champions for the first time in 32 years because they beat the Rays 3-1 in Game 6. The result solidifies the legacy of Clayton Kershaw, the iconic left-hander who won two games in this series. It confirms the status of the Dodgers not just as a development machine that consistently cranks out more regular season wins than anyone else, but as a club with a championship pedigree. They have a core that comes back again and again and again, and there's no reason to believe they'll stop.
But there's no way to analyze the Dodgers' title, to watch the pile of bodies in those beautiful blue-and-white uniforms celebrate the accomplishment, and not think, “What if Kevin Cash had left Blake Snell in?”
That's what Tuesday night amounted to: The analyticsdriven Rays removed a starting pitcher who had a 1-0 lead, who had gotten one out in the sixth, who had struck out nine, who had given up two measly singles and hadn't walked anyone.
Read that sentence. Know the result. Consider whether it makes any sense.
When he walked off the mound in bottom of the sixth, Snell surrendered both the baseball and the Rays' distinct advantage in Game 6. Snell had faced 18
Los Angeles Dodgers. Only three had managed to hit a ball that reached the outfield. The third came on Snell's 73rd pitch, which Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes floated into centre field, a single, just Los Angeles's second baserunner of the night.
The next three hitters were the top of the Dodgers lineup: Mookie Betts, Corey Seager and Justin Turner. All are dangerous. None had touched Snell — six times up, six strikeouts.
Yet with one out, here came the manager. This must have been a discussion of strategy and approach to Betts, one of the game's best players, right? Instead, Cash asked for the ball. In disbelief, Snell handed it to him.
This is the part of modern baseball that just, frankly, stinks. It is built on analysis and probability, and there's nothing wrong with that — until it strips the human beings playing and running the game of the ability to make decisions based on what they feel, what they see.
If the Rays were going to force a seventh game, Snell was going to force it for them. Bob Gibson and Tom Seaver, rest their souls, would be proud.
Snell is a former Cy Young Award winner. And with his team holding a 1-0 lead in a game it needed to win to extend its season, he was only allowed to get 16 outs.
Analytically, statistics show the average pitcher is significantly worse when he faces a lineup for a third time. Fatigue can mean his stuff is diminished. Familiarity can be an advantage for the hitters. It's real info that teams deploy accordingly.
Yet for Snell, the third time through hasn't been much of a factor. For his career, his on base plus slugging (OPS) numbers are .592 the first time through, .711 the next time up and just a slight bump to .742 the third time through. Throw in the 16 times in his career when he has faced a lineup a fourth time — which has yielded a .125 OPS, his best games — and it's clear Snell has the ability to pitch deeper than the Rays allow.
To be fair to Tampa Bay, they're not the only organization to think this way. Indeed, the Dodgers employ such strategy, and in Game 5, the great Kershaw was removed after 52/3 innings and just 85 pitches. Workhorses now don't go eight innings. They go six.
Back to Tuesday night. Cash's choice, with one on and one out: Right-hander Nick Anderson. Anderson was a key component to Cash's bullpen during the regular season, but had given up runs in each of his past six outings. During that time, a stretch of 92/3 innings, hitters ripped Anderson for a .342 batting average and a 1.010 OPS.
See what's coming?
“Baseball is not played inside a computer,” one big leaguer wrote by text just after the move. “Why would you take that guy out????”
Information is great. But baseball has a heart and soul, and it's being ripped out.
With Barnes on first, Betts ripped a ball down the third-base line, a double to put runners on second and third. When Anderson uncorked a wild pitch, Barnes scampered home. Tie game.
Seager then pulled a grounder to first base. Betts broke for home. Ji-Man Choi's throw was too late. The Dodgers took the lead and never looked back.
The computer that generated the algorithms that led to Cash's move needs to be turned off to get its winter's rest. With his off-season here, Cash, a human being, actually has to try to get some sleep. Good luck with that.