NHL'S NORTHERN RED LIGHTS SHOW
Goaltenders under siege in high-scoring Canadian division, writes Neil Greenberg.
The NHL's realigned North Division, featuring all of the league's teams from Canada, is taking over the scoring leaderboards this season.
As of Friday, Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid leads the league in points with 28, followed closely by teammate Leon Draisaitl, who ranks second with 26 points. Mitch Marner of the Toronto Maple Leafs is third (21).
The picture recalls the end of the 2001-02 season, when Jarome Iginla (Calgary Flames), Markus Naslund and Todd Bertuzzi (Vancouver Canucks) gave Canadian teams a 1-2-3 finish in the points race.
So far this season, all of the top six goal scorers and 13 of the top 20 are from the North. The top four assist leaders are, too, prompting a look into why Canadian teams are surging in the scoring department.
Have the top scorers gotten better or, in a season when teams play only against divisional opponents, has the goaltending and defence on Canada-based teams just gotten worse? The early returns suggest the defence and goaltending from the division's teams has declined.
Calgary's Mark Giordano, the 2018-19 Norris Trophy winner, and Rasmus Andersson allow 2.5 expected goals per 60 minutes at even strength, which means that based on the shot quality of each attempt, we would expect that many goals to be scored per 60 minutes of ice time. They allowed 2.0 expected goals per 60 minutes last season. Only seven other defensive pairs skating at least 100 minutes together have been worse this season. Three of those are also in the North Division.
Edmonton's defensive pair of Darnell Nurse and Tyson Barrie allows the highest rate of even-strength shots against per 60 minutes among all defensive duos sharing at least 100 minutes of ice time together. They're also on the ice for the highest expected goals against per 60 minutes, meaning they allow a very high quality of shot.
Vancouver's Jordie Benn and Quinn Hughes are the second-worst defensive pair in regard to shot quality allowed. Nate Schmidt and Tyler Myers of the Canucks allow the third-highest rate of shots against after adjusting for shot quality and Edmonton's Nurse and Ethan Bear rank as the fifth worst.
As a division, the North allows an expected goals-against rate — which takes into account shot volume and shot quality — of
2.9 goals per 60 minutes at all strengths, the worst among the realigned divisions.
A higher quality of shot doesn't do any favours for the netminders, but the goalies aren't helping themselves, either.
Ottawa's Marcus Hogberg is, statistically, the worst goalie in the league. He's stopped 122 of 146 shots faced in six games for a league low .836 save percentage.
Surprisingly, Vancouver's Braden Holtby, a former Vezina Trophy winner and Stanley Cup champion with the Washington Capitals, is also at the bottom of the list. Holtby has stopped 231 of 261 shots faced over eight games, giving him a below average .885 save rate. Based on where the shots originated from, we would expect Holtby's save rate to be closer to .903.
Edmonton's Mikko Koskinen, meanwhile, has allowed the most goals against this season (44), resulting in an .895 overall save percentage.
Montreal splits the time in its net between Jake Allen and Carey Price. The former is holding his own (a league-leading .933 overall save percentage) but the latter is well below average (.896 save percentage).
Calgary's Jacob Markstrom is perhaps the only goaltender in the division who can be called a dependable starter this season. The 31-year-old has an overall .921 save rate and has stopped 96 per cent of all even-strength scoring chances and 21 of 22 attempts originating in the slot or the crease.
Still, the North Division as a whole has an .898 overall save percentage. It's hard to win with that level of goaltending.
Since the lockout of 200506, only two teams have won the Stanley Cup with a regular season save percentage under .900 — the Carolina Hurricanes (2006) and Chicago Blackhawks (2010).