`What's up, Brady?' keeps Sens fans on edge of their seats
Welcome to the hottest guessing game in Ottawa these days, the one called, “What's up, Brady?”
For a large segment of Senators fans, desperate for any and every tidbit of information surrounding contract negotiations with star restricted free agent Brady Tkachuk, it's a highly addictive social media exercise that's anxiety-inducing and full of entertainment.
Has he already booked a flight to Ottawa from his off-season home in St. Louis? And when? Is he leaning toward a blockbuster eight-year contract that could be the most lucrative in franchise history? Or will he hedge his bets on the long-term future of the team by signing a three-year extension?
It says here that the Tkachuk camp holds the better cards because he has long been held up as the centrepiece of the dynamic young group, but as is the case with all tense negotiations, the best leverage for both sides won't come until the hard deadlines arrive.
A deal may not happen before Tkachuk turns 22 next Thursday. A better bet is on or around Sept. 22, the opening day of training camp. Under the ideal scenario, Tkachuk would be signed as camp opens, with the captain's C sewn on his chest, energized for the new season and the promise of a playoff berth for the first time since 2017.
As it stands now, though, the “What's up, Brady?” obsession is certainly one the long-suffering organization should be embracing. The fans clearly care, anxious for Tkachuk and company to get rolling again.
After so many years of lacklustre on-ice results and off-ice mistrust of the ownership of Eugene Melnyk following the departures of popular veterans including Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone and Daniel Alfredsson, the mood of hope is a welcome change. Many of the placeholders of the past few years are long gone as the stream of new prospects continues.
Some of that old, ugly stuff still lingers in the air, of course — we'll get to that in a moment — but the club's front office is riding a wave of momentum as the club's development camp opens on the weekend.
It sure beats the uncertainty that's down the road in Montreal, stemming from the loss of Jesperi Kotkaniemi, the guy selected before Tkachuk in the 2018 entry draft.
There was a measure of reassurance about the rebuild in the form of Drake Batherson's sixyear, $29.85-million extension, a sound contract based on where Tkachuk's linemate is trending as a prolific goal scorer.
Then came the extension for GM Pierre Dorion, who had previously been in Limbo Land heading into the final year of his existing deal.
After a summer that included coach D.J. Smith being given an extension and with Pierre McGuire brought in as senior vice-president of development, it was a loose end that had, quite reasonably, raised questions about what was happening at the top of management ladder. As a prominent agent has told me, stability of ownership and management is the central issue for players who have options in deciding their long-term futures.
Which brings us to the essence of Tkachuk's short- or long-term decision.
He's surrounded by stars of his own age, last season rooming with Josh Norris and Tim Stuetzle in Stone's rented house, and all three have talked about the idea of growing together into something special.
Tkachuk, however, also remains close to Stone, who served as his mentor in his rookie season before being traded to Vegas and signing his eight-year, US$76-million extension. Tkachuk was at Stone's wedding earlier this summer.
Is that in any way significant to the current Tkachuk contract talks and in what bonuses and/or clauses he could ask for in a potential deal? Maybe. Maybe not. But it is yet another piece in the “What's Up, Brady?” speculation game.
And what about Melnyk's comments on the Bob McCown podcast in May that Tkachuk wouldn't be named captain unless he signs a lengthy extension?
First off, it's uncommon for an owner to be so involved in the inner workings of a dressing room. Secondly, if there's a player who stands out as a natural leader regardless of the length of his contract, wouldn't the other players want him as the captain?
Three months later, linking a contract to the captaincy remains as an intriguing line to have drawn in the sand.
As for what the value of a Tkachuk deal would look like, well, that too, has been fodder for plenty of discussion.
In a salary cap world full of comparables, Carolina's Andrei Svechnikov established a marketplace by becoming the first star of the 2018 draft to sign a long-term deal.
That eight-year, $62-million deal, which includes a limited notrade clause in the final four seasons, should be considered a low bar on what Tkachuk could earn. Tkachuk is a more physically imposing presence than Svechnikov and it will be fun see how he can impose himself when and if the Senators make the post-season.
Perhaps more importantly, there's also the Senators internal salary structure to consider.
Specifically, it's the eight-year, $64-million extension signed by Thomas Chabot in 2019, which also includes a limited no-trade clause in the final four seasons. There would be some salary symmetry if the club's top forward and top defenceman were carrying similar contract numbers down the road.
If, that is, Tkachuk chooses to buy into the long-term program.
What's Up, Brady?