SENS HOPE LUCK TURNS AROUND WITH LOTTO DRAW
Ottawa has seventh-best odds of capturing first overall pick tonight for NHL draft
The Ottawa Senators had no shortage of bad luck last season.
Maybe they'll have the Wright stuff to win the annual draft lottery being held Tuesday night at the NHL Network studios in Secaucus, N.J.
Hockey fans in the nation's capital will be gathered around their televisions at 6:30 p.m. to see where the Senators will select in the first round of the NHL draft that will be held in person for the first time in two years July 7-8 at the Bell Centre in Montreal.
With a chance to select topranked North American prospect Shane Wright of the OHL's Kingston Frontenacs on the line, general manager Pierre Dorion, chief amateur scout Trent Mann and the rest of the club's scouting staff will be waiting patiently to see where the Senators will select.
Slovak winger Juraj Slafkovsky was the top European player from the NHL's Central Scouting Bureau. He had five goals and 10 points with TPS in Finland. Logan Cooley of the USHL is the second-ranked prospect in North America.
Dorion won't have to be on hand for the actual lottery because the non-playoff teams will be participating virtually.
The draw includes the 16 teams that missed the playoffs and though the Senators didn't expect to be in this position this spring, the club does have five picks in the first three rounds. That's a lot of draft capital to have.
The Senators have the seventh-best odds of winning the lottery at 6.5 per cent. It's only right the host Montreal Canadiens, who had a horrible year, will have the best chance at 18.5 per cent, while the Arizona Coyotes are second at 13.5 per cent and the Seattle Kraken have 11.5 per cent odds.
The league made changes to the lottery this year which limits the number of teams that can actually move up to the No. 1 pick. This time around, only the top 11 teams in the draft lottery will have a chance at getting the No. 1 overall selection.
The changes also reduce the chance of the Habs. In the past, the team that finished with the worst record overall could drop as low as fourth in the draft. Under this format, Montreal can fall no further than No. 3 because teams can't move back any more than two spots.
That means the Senators are guaranteed a pick in the top 10 because they can't fall any lower than the No. 9 overall selection.
Also, this is the first year that a team can't win the lottery more than twice in a span of five years.
Unlike past years, there's not as much anticipation surrounding this lottery for the Senators, and why would there be?
No, they likely won't have a shot at Wright, but the organization is well positioned with lots of prospects to choose from in the system, so it's not like they necessarily need a player who can make an impact immediately.
Instead of three lotteries to determine the top 3 picks, this will be the second year the balls will only be rolled twice.
The club was supposed to be a playoff contender and the chance of getting the No. 1 pick isn't that great for the Senators. Sure, there'll be interest in watching where the lottery balls drop, but nothing like the 2020 NHL draft when the Senators selected winger Tim Stuetzle at No. 3 and defenceman Jake Sanderson with the No. 5 overall picks.
Sanderson signed an entry-level deal in March after leaving the University of North Dakota, but wasn't healthy enough to make his NHL debut. He'll be with the club in rookie camp and will be part of the tournament the Senators will participate in during September.
There has been talk this isn't a strong draft because of a lack of high-end talent, but every trip to the table is what you make it, and if the Senators do a good job, they'll have enough prospects that may play down the road.
Just for fun, I spun the Tankathon draft simulator 10 times Monday. The Habs only won the lottery once in those 10 attempts, while the Arizona Coyotes moved up to No. 1 twice, along with Chicago Blackhawks and the San Jose Sharks once.
In nine of the 10 scenarios I tried, the Sens fell backwards to No. 8 because a team in front of them, other than Montreal, turned out to be the lotto winner.
The reality is the Senators will likely stay right where they are at No. 7, but we'll have to wait to see.