The deal spells the end for Christy Clark

Over to you, Your Honour. What happens next in B.C. politics is up to the most powerful woman in the province and her name is not Christy Clark.

Judith Guichon, the lieutenant-governor and the Queen’s formal representative in B.C., gets to decide, with the help of constitutional advisors, how to proceed after Monday’s announcement by NDP leader John Horgan and Green leader Andrew Weaver that they are willing to work together in forming government.

They won’t release the details until today, after the NDP caucus votes on it (Horgan told reporters he expects unanimous support) but the two leaders did reveal that it’s not a coalition but a "confidence and supply" deal.

In other words, Weaver and his two fellow MLAs agree to support Horgan’s NDP government on any votes where a loss would lead to the fall of the government and possibly trigger an election. The three Green MLAs will sit in opposition, independently of the NDP, and will be free to criticize proposed NDP legislation, just as they would any government.

Their deal, however, is up to Guichon to accept and she is not bound in any way to do so.

Clark is still the premier because she is the leader of the party that won the most seats. Clark could advise Guichon to simply call another election and Guichon has the authority to accept that suggestion. Part of the purpose of Horgan and Weaver’s announcement was to broadcast to Guichon that there is no need to call another election because there is a government-in-waiting with a) more seats combined than the Liberals and b) enough combined seats to form a razor-thin majority in the Legislature.

Guichon’s job is to make sure there is a premier who can form government. If Clark can’t do so and there is a legitimate offer on the table by the Leader of the Opposition, Guichon is not bound to accept but past precedent would say she would accept that arrangement.

Clark has a few more cards to play, as she alluded to in her brief statement Monday.

She wants to see the details of the deal between Weaver and Horgan and she wants to consult with her caucus before deciding what’s next.

She doesn’t have to hand over the keys this week or even this month if she doesn’t want to.

Clark was never a fan of the Legislature to begin with and if she had been elected with a majority government, she would have been well within her rights to wait until September or October before starting a new session.

That won’t happen here, however.

If the details of the NDPGreens alliance is as chummy and cheerful as Horgan and Weaver were before the cameras Monday, that B.C. Liberal caucus meeting tomorrow could be quite dramatic.

Clark may either offer her resignation, both as premier and party leader, or she may be instructed by her caucus, which includes Dan Ashton and Linda Larson, to do so if she won’t leave willingly.

It might be jumping ahead too many steps but don’t be surprised if that occurs that Bond is then named interim party leader and thus Leader of the Opposition to allow for the selection of a new leader.

That’s a full-time job she doesn’t want but would do for the sake of her party on a temporary basis, just like Rona Ambrose just finished doing for the federal Conservatives.

These are unusual times, not just provincially, but also locally.

If Horgan becomes premier, this will be the first time since 1986, when the NDP’s Lois Boone won a tight race against Social Credit’s Gordon Springate in what was then called Prince George North that Prince George residents will have an MLA sitting on the opposition side of the Legislature.

In this case, two MLAs, Shirley Bond relegated there for the first time and Morris, who only had one term in government.

Back in 1986, it was an odd situation, because Bruce Strachan held on to Prince George South for Social Credit, meaning one local MLA was in government and one was in opposition.

Since 1991, both Prince George MLAs have been on the government side, first with the NDP and then the Liberals, and for the vast majority of the last 26 years, both local MLAs have also been cabinet ministers.

Back in Boone and Strachan’s day, they had to work hard to win tight elections, in stark contrast to the cakewalk campaigns Bond and Morris have enjoyed.

As a result, both the NDP and Social Credit (and the Liberals after them) worked hard to please Prince George residents because these ridings could be flipped from election to election.

That kind of influence in government is likely gone. Worse, there is little incentive for an NDP government to give any kind of love to the Central Interior that elected Liberal MLAs with more than 50 per cent of the vote across the board.

How that will play out over the coming months and years is far more uncertain than what’s on the table this week in Victoria.

Horgan is poised to become premier and Clark is halfway out the door.

Neil Godbout is managing editor of The Prince George Citizen.