War and repeating history
George Santayana’s quote, “Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it” has never been truer. Russia is and particularly Putin’s recent actions in the Ukraine have been so similar to Germany’s actions prior to World War II, that it appears we do not remember Germany’s actions. We may be condemned to have a new world war. This one with the potential for mass destruction from nuclear weapons.
In 1936 Hitler signed an AntiComintern Pact with Japan and a non-aggression agreement with Mussolini. I think similar Russian agreements with China and even possibly with North Korea may be contemplated. In 1938 Hitler sent an ultimatum to Austrian Chancellor Kurt Schuschnigg demanding that he hand over all power to the Austrian Nazi Party.
German troops entered Austria the next day. Russia may have a similar mutual support pact with Belarus. Because of a substantial minority of Germans in Czechoslovakia, Germany expressed its interests in annexing parts of Czechoslovakia in 1938.
British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain approved the Munich Agreement in September 1938, which gave Hitler a free hand to annex Czechoslovakia. The recent Russian annexation of Ukrainian Crimea and current attacks on the rest of the Ukraine are similar, and Putin is confident that, like it was prior to World War II, western democracies will not have the political will to oppose him directly.
Putin is further encouraged by the failure of western democracies to directly oppose his support of the Assad regime in Syria. What would make the comparison to the lead up to a world war complete is if Putin’s next location of political interest in eastern Europe is Poland.
The German attack on Poland started the Second World War. Poland is a member of NATO and a direct attack by Putin could easily start a new world war. I think that even if Putin does not attack Poland, if he has any success with his current attack on the Ukraine, we could have a new cold war with the associated bomb shelters and hiding under desks at school.
Russia is appropriately proud of the sacrifice their military made in World War II against Germany, particularly relative to western allies, with many more military deaths per population. I still find it strange that Putin is using the same excuses of protecting Russian interests to initiate aggression today, as Hitler did this to protect German interests for his aggression prior to World War II. I believe that Putin is more like Hitler than he would like to admit.
Western democracies and NATO need to take a stronger opposition to Putin in the Ukraine such as enforcing a Russian no-fly zone over Ukrainian territory.