Rural-urban divide presents challenge
The recent release of data from the 2021 Census shows the unique characteristics of Canada. We have the second largest land mass (more than 9.9 million square kilometres) in the world but an extremely low level of population (3.7 persons per square kilometre.)
Moreover, while we have lots of room, more than 73.7 per cent of us live in one of the nation’s large (population of 100,000 or more) urban centres of which there are 41. Six centres were added to this list in the 2021 census including Kelowna which was the third fastest growing urban centre in Canada. In some sense we are, demographically speaking, a string of urban centres linked by railroads and highways with vast lightly populated rural areas in between.
It was these 41 urban centres that accounted for most of the nation’s 5.2 per cent population growth between 2016 and 2021. More than 9 out of 10 immigrants settled in these centres.
The rapid increase in population of Canadian cities is rapidly expanding our requirements for infrastructure, transportation and services of all kinds, for example, emergency services. And this relentless growth raises environmental concerns such as car-dependent cultures and encroachment on farm lands, wetlands and wildlife.
Urban centres throughout Canada are, of necessity, changing in significant ways. First, the population in what
StatCan refers to as “downtowns” is increasing while, at the same time, urban sprawl is, in some centres, actually accelerating.
StatCan attributes the growth of downtown populations to the fact that many cities have adopted plans to increase both downtown density and the supply of housing. As well, the desire to live in central neighbourhoods is strong, especially among young people, as is the desire to minimize commute time and to live in the dynamic centre of the city with its many nearby services and entertainment opportunities.
Beginning in 2020, however, the Covid-19 pandemic had a significant impact on many urban centres. The growth rates of downtowns slowed beginning in 2020, as did that in the suburbs (though at slightly slower rates in these regions).
But the big picture is one of urban centres growing ever more populous while the population of rural Canada is declining in relevant terms. This shift to urban centres has been going on since the 19th century when farming began to be more mechanized and industries in cities offered alternative employment and rising incomes.
One of the consequences of this increasing urbanization was a difference in the demographic profiles between rural and urban. The urban centres were more diverse in ethnic composition with both higher average incomes and levels of education. And in political terms urban centres were more (small-L) liberal than rural Canada.
This shift is having an impact on the composition of our federal Parliament.
The Conservative party is strong in rural ridings while the Liberal and NDP are stronger in urban ridings. While the Conservatives have a hammerlock on most of western Canada, in voter-rich and heavily urbanized central Canada, it is the Liberals and NDP who win most of the seats. They also dominate in the urban centres of Vancouver and Vancouver Island.
These simple demographic realities put strains on popular support for and perceived effectiveness of governments in both the federal and provincial systems. Bridging the rural-urban divide will need attention as we face the challenges of climate change and shifting trade relations.