The Reprieve

Welcome to our special issue on the federal election, The Reprieve, as we’ve called it. For Justin Trudeau, the 2019 federal election results may not have been a relief, but they certainly were a reprieve. He’s won a workable minority government, at 157 seats—only 13 short of a majority—and needing only the NDP with their 24 seats to put the Liberals in majority territory. Welcome to the NHL, Jagmeet Singh, who may have lost the house but saved the furniture of the New Democrats in the Commons.

For Trudeau, the reprieve of a viable minority government is obviously much better than losing after only one term in office, and bearing the blame for the defeat after running a lacklustre campaign in which he not only failed to define a ballot question, but was haunted by a spotty record that included the SNC-Lavalin fiasco, and the firing of two women ministers who refused to toe the leader’s line. If it’s any consolation for Trudeau, none of the other leaders had much to write home about either, as Robin Sears writes in our lead article, The Bittersweet Election. Himself a former national director of the NDP, Sears writes that if the campaign strategists were called in for a group meeting, “no matter how they struggled to defend themselves, the answer would surely be the same: ‘You’re all fired.’” Lori Turnbull explains why no party got to a majority of 170 seats, and calls the campaign “an epic fail, except perhaps for the Bloc Québécois.” Geoff Norquay looks inside the numbers and agrees it was definitely not a campaign for the ages, with the leaders behaving like “internet trolls”, by which “they devalued themselves and the political process.” Looking at the parties, John Delacourt concurs the Liberals averted defeat, and tells the inside of how they turned “Trudeau’s crisis” over blackface to their advantage on policy. From the Conservative perspective, Yaroslav Baran observes that while Andrew Scheer won the popular vote, he needs to overcome the “regional and demographic divides” that keep the Conservatives in opposition. Brian Topp has filled senior roles in the NDP, most recently as chief of staff to former Premier Rachel Notley in Alberta. While acknowledging the NDP took a serious hit in the election, he sees grounds for hope, not just in a minority House, but in Jagmeet Singh’s winning campaign performance and a caucus of, “an impressive, young, gender balanced and diverse set of candidates.”

In a Guest Column, outgoing Green Party Leader Elizabeth May also takes a measure of hope from what she calls a “dispiriting” and “a dirty campaign.” May has only three seats to show for over 1 million votes. Which makes her case for electoral reform, as well as the climate change fight. Her conclusion: “We fight on.”

Looking at Quebec, McGill’s Daniel Béland writes that the “biggest success” of the 2019 election was “the return of the Bloc Québécois to centre stage”, with leader Yves-François Blanchet taking the Bloc there, notably with strong performances in the French debates. Author and former Official Languages commissioner Graham Fraser looks at the language issue, always a factor in Francophone ridings, which often determine election outcomes, as it did in this one, giving the Bloc 32 seats and depriving Trudeau of another majority. In a Guest Column, former federal minister and longtime Quebec Premier Jean Charest thinks minority government can be a good thing in a federation. “It is,” he writes, “to the benefit of Canadians that there be some form of implicit checks and balances.” Writer and Liberal strategist Tiffany Gooch looks beyond the election and sees an opportunity to hold the new government to account on “improving the lives of Black Canadians.” On the economic file, BMO economists Doug Porter and Robert Kavcic note that markets are accustomed to minority governments in Canada, three in the last 15 years alone. They’re predicting “plenty of horse trading before next year’s budget.” Former Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page, now President of the Institute for Fiscal Studies and Democracy, looks ahead with economics student Mélyne Nzabonimpa at Budget 2020 and thinks the Liberals will move quickly on “affordability”. The fiscal question remains, as always: Where’s the money coming from? Our columnist Don Newman also congratulates Blanchet on a strong and smart campaign, and notes he will be an important player in a minority House. In our Canada and the World feature, foreign policy hand Jeremy Kinsman looks at the Brexit drama, now heading to an election on December 12, and what it all means, not only for the U.K., but Britain’s partners such as Canada.

Finally, if you’re looking for books for the holidays, nothing could be more Canadian than hockey in a small town. Contributing writer Anthony Wilson-Smith looks at Sean Fitz-Gerald’s Before the Lights Go Out, a compelling look at the competitive and financial challenges facing minor hockey in Canada. Enjoy.