Agricultural moisture situation for February looks promising
During the first half of winter, most of the province enjoyed well above average temperatures that accompanied below normal precipitation accumulations and lower than average snow pack development. This was in sharp contrast to the wet weather patterns that dominated the growing season and hampered agriculture operations throughout many parts of the province last year.
The warm, dry trend that persisted since at least the start of winter ended abruptly across most of the province during the fourth week in January with cold arctic air flooding in from the north, that looks poised to persist for at least another 10-days.
90-Day temperature departures as of January 19, 2021 (Map 1)
Following a cold snap in mid-October, temperatures climbed above seasonal and remained consistently above normal well into mid-January. For many areas, this was a relatively rare event experienced on average less than once in 50-years.
During the last week of January a major weather pattern shift occurred as most of the province was plunged into the winter deep freeze. On January 24, temperatures hit -42°C at two stations 70 km west of Fort McMurray and - 40.2°C at the Beaver Dam AGCM station, just 30 km south of Cold Lake.
Snowpacks relative to long term normal as of February 2 2021 (Map 2)
A warm start to winter and below normal precipitation accumulations led to well below normal snowpacks for this time of year throughout most of the province. This is particularly true of the western parts of the North West region, where warm weather all but melted out the snowpack by early January.
Currently snowpacks range from less than once in 50- year lows across parts of the North West out towards Edson, with several areas showing 12 to 25 year lows along a wide band stretching as far east as Lloydminster, as well as through parts of the south eastern Peace Region. However, there is still plenty of winter left and significant snow accumulations may still occur.
180-Day precipitation accumulations relative to normal as of February 2 2021 (Map 3)
Generally in mid to late August of 2020, many areas shifted away from a wetter pattern to a much drier one. This allowed parts of the previously wet North West to dry significantly with some areas experiencing precipitation accumulations on the order of 1 in 50-year lows. Similarly, lands across much of the North East and northern parts of the Central Region where it was previously very wet, have had a chance to dry out.
It is far too early to tell what the next growing season will be like. Dramatic shifts from wet to dry and hot to cold are frequent occurrences in Alberta’s meteorological record. Most areas will benefit from at least near normal precipitation patterns heading into spring planting.