Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, 2023-12-15

This report updates Agriculture and Agri Food Canada’s (AAFC) November outlook for the 2023-2024 crop year. For most crops in Canada, the crop year starts on August 1 and ends on July 31, although for corn and soybeans, the crop year starts on September 1 and ends on August 31. Uncertainty in the world’s grain markets remains above normal as a result of Russian aggression against Ukraine.

For 2023-2024, the outlook incorporates the results of Statistics Canada’s (STC) November Farm Survey of crop production, which was released on December 4, 2023, and was based on a survey of approximately 27,200 farmers that was conducted from October 6 to November 12, 2023. These are the last official estimates for crop production from STC in 2023 and replace the modelbased estimates that were released on September 14, 2023.

Production of all principal field crops is estimated at 89.8 million tonnes (Mt) in 2023, down 7.5% from 2022 and 2.3% below the 2018-2022 average. The decrease in production can be largely attributed to a reduction in yields due to drought conditions encountered in Western Canada, with regions in south-eastern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan especially hard hit. Despite the challenging growing conditions, production in Western Canada fell less than expected and was higher than STC’s modelbased estimates released in September, declining 10.2% compared to the previous year and 4.3% below the 2018-2022 average. In contrast, Eastern Canada received normal to above normal precipitation throughout the growing season; overall, production was marginally up by 0.8% compared to 2022.

By major crop commodity groups, all wheat production is estimated to have fallen 6.9% year-overyear to 32.0 Mt in 2023. Marginally smaller oilseed output is also expected, down 0.5% to 25.6 Mt. Production of coarse grains is estimated to have decreased 11.0% to 27.1 Mt due to lower yields as well as a large decline in harvested area for oats. Production of pulses and special crops is projected to have declined 21.8% from 2022 to 5.1 Mt in 2023 due to both lower yields and harvested area for lentils and dry peas, the largest crops in this category.

In general, crop prices are forecast to remain relatively strong for 2023-24. The prices for most crops are forecast down year-over-year, however, the prices for durum, oats, lentils, dry beans, chickpeas, and canary seed are projected to increase. At this time, the price forecasts are subject to significant volatility due to the elevated amount of uncertainty in global markets.

The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled to be released on January 22, 2024. Wheat Durum For 2023-24, production of Canadian durum is estimated at 4.0 million tonnes (Mt), 30% less than last year’s volume, due to dry and hot weather throughout the growing season. Statistics Canada’s (STC) December estimate was revised down from the 4.1 Mt forecast in their September report. Average yield is estimated at 1.7 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), down from 2.4 t/ha last year. Saskatchewan accounted for 80% of the production, Alberta for 18%, 1% in Manitoba, with the remainder in Ontario and Quebec who have been trialing durum production over the last few years. Total supply is forecast at 4.5 Mt, 30% less than in 2022-23.

The average quality, in terms of grades, is relatively on par with 2022-23, but above the last five-year average. According to Canadian Grain Commission’s (CGC) sample survey analysis to November 9, 2023, 82% of the durum graded No. 1 and 2 and another 15% graded No. 3. The protein content averaged 14.6% compared to 14.8% last year.

Domestic use is forecast to drop marginally to 0.8 Mt with a reduction in feed use. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise 10% from the record-low level set in 202223; they are pegged at 0.45 Mt. The export forecast is lowered 3% from the November estimate because of sluggish exports to-date. According to STC, Canada shipped 0.6 Mt of durum from August to November 2023, 29% less than for the same time period in 2022-23 and 30% below average levels.

According to the International Grains Council, world durum production is forecast to fall to 31.4 Mt in 2023-24, down 9% compared to the previous year due to dry weather curbing yields in North America, North Africa, and Europe. Total supply is forecast at 38.7 Mt, down 8% year-onyear. Consumption is forecast down 3% compared to 2022 levels despite an uptick in trade. Global exports are forecast to grow by 0.1 Mt to 9.1 Mt in 2023-24 thanks to an increase in shipments from Turkey at globally competitive prices. Closing stocks are currently pegged at 4.9 Mt, with major exporters’ share dropping to 2.0 Mt, the lowest since 1997-98.

The US durum supply is estimated at 3.5 Mt, down 8% compared to 2022-23. Despite the reduction, exports are anticipated to grow to 0.7 Mt while ending stocks are pegged at 0.5 Mt, down from 0.8 Mt the year before.

The average spot price for Canadian Western Amber Durum No. 1, 13% protein content in Saskatchewan for the 2023-24 crop year is forecast at $475/tonne.