CPC leads in vote intention comfortably (40%) over Liberals (23%) and NDP (21%)
Political watchers might observe that it has been a winter of both attempted accomplishment and discontent for the Liberal federal government. The ongoing confidence-and-supply agreement with the New Democrats was seemingly strengthened by the announcement of a national pharmacare program – a key component of continuing NDP support for the minority government – in February. That said, recent revelations of a security breach at the Winnipeg National Microbiology Laboratory, and a Conservative by-election victory in Durham have certainly dampened any internal celebrations at Liberal headquarters.
For their part, Canadians have taken it all in and produced largely the same vote intention they offered three months ago. The opposition Conservatives hold a comfortable advantage as the choice for two-in-five would-be voters (40%), close to doubling both the Liberals (23%) and New Democrats (21%).
The story at the federal level is static, if comfortable for the opposition. Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre does, however, appear to be bumping against a ceiling when it comes to his favourability. Currently 38 per cent of Canadians say they view him favourably, a number unchanged since last September. This, as women continue to offer him little favour (28%) compared to men (50%).
Poilievre maintains another significant advantage over his rivals, as he is comfortably the most likely leader to be viewed as suited to the job of prime minister. On this measure, Poilievre nearly doubles Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (31% to 17%) and does double NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (15%). That said, perhaps showing the lack of enthusiasm within the Canadian public, 28 per cent of Canadians say they do not think any of the aforementioned leaders is suited to lead the country, and another one-in-10 say they’re not sure who would be best.
More Key Findings:
• The CPC lead in every region of the country aside from Quebec. In that province, the Bloc Québécois are chosen by 36 per cent of leaning and decided voters, with the Liberals (21%), Conservatives (23%) and NDP (16%) all garnering significant support.
• Canadians are divided about the ongoing confidence-and-supply agreement. Two-in-five (42%) say it is working well, while the same number (45%) disagree. Notably, there has been no change in these levels compared to last June, even with the announcement of dental and pharmacare programs.
• The top issues facing the country continue to be inflation, health care, housing affordability, and climate change. These have been the top four issues for a full year, in the same order of priority.