Alberta agricultural moisture situation update not looking favourable
Over the past two weeks, low to moderate amounts of moisture have come mainly through thunderstorm activity, resulting in highly variable precipitation accumulations throughout most of the province’s agricultural areas. This has been accompanied by warmer than average temperatures, particularly through the southernhalf of the province, and wide spread smoke from fires in neighboring provinces.
60-day temperature regimes relative to normal as of August 5, 2021 (Map 5)
Along with low rainfall accumulations, all areas have been struggling with prolonged periods of above average temperatures with most agricultural lands experiencing temperatures this warm on average less than once in 50-years (Map 5).
Perspective
Looking back as far as 1901 through the meteorological record, many areas have not seen anything like this growing season, since the late 1920’s 1930’s or early 1940’s, depending on where they are. Unfortunately, making direct comparisons to these other events is a complicated task as land use has changed dramatically in many locales, and one must contend with a lower weather station density along with a lack of humidity, wind speed and radiation measurements when exploring similarities.
In comparison, the droughts of 2001 and 2002 were not as widely spread as the current situation. In 2001 dry conditions affected the southern parts of the province, while much of the north-half of the province fared relatively well. Then, in 2002, the south received abundant moisture, while exceptionally warm and dry conditions developed through the north-central parts of the province.
Over the next few days, cooler weather is set to prevail, at least in the short term, with rains in the forecast for several locations, particularly in the extreme northern and southern portions of the province. Along with this shift in temperature, many areas may be subjected to the potential for severe weather. Keep a close eye on your local forecast.
15-day precipitation accumulations as of August 5 Province wide precipitation accumulations are highly variable, but generally most lands have received less than 10 mm of rain over the past 15-days (Map1). Throughout many agricultural areas, there are lands that have not received any precipitation over this time frame. This has led to further moisture stress, which has been exacerbated by well above average temperatures.
60-day precipitation accumulations as of August 5, 2021 (Map 2 and Map 4)
In early June, moisture conditions were highly variable across the province with much of the southern Peace Region and southern parts of Alberta heading into the growing season with low soil moisture reserves (Map 2).
June and July are critical months for crop growth. In early June, dry weather set in across most of the province with many lands receiving well below normal rainfall since then (Map 3). Currently, all four agricultural regions have areas that have experienced conditions this dry, on average less than once in 50- years. Over the past 60-days, many lands have received less than 80 mm of moisture, ranging down to less than 40 mm for a large area in the Southern Region (Map 4). This is far less than what a crop needs for adequate growth and development.