HE’S STILL THE MAN
Brad Wall remains the most popular premier in Canada.
The latest Angus Reid poll on the popularity of premiers shows Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall’s approval rating is stable at around 67 per cent, the only score in the country higher than 50 per cent.
Charles Smith of the University of Saskatchewan political studies department said there are a variety of factors driving that approval.
“On a personal level, Mr. Wall is an extremely charismatic politician,” he said, noting the premier has also “sought the middle right and I think done that very successfully.”
But other elements — such as the status of the provincial NDP, which has been without a permanent leader since the 2011 election, as well as the strong economy — have been part of making Wall the most popular, Smith said.
From Nov. 25 to Dec. 3, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 6,619 randomly selected Angus Reid Forum panelists. The margin of error is plus or minus 1.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20. The results were statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. The Saskatchewan sample size was 1,286.
“(Wall’s) numbers are great, but that doesn’t mean they can’t change,” Smith said, pointing to Alberta Premier Alison Redford — second on the list — whose rating dropped eight points since August to 47 per cent.
Mario Canseco, vicepresident of Angus Reid Public Opinion, said he doesn’t think Wall’s success will be easily replicated anytime soon. He said the “well-oiled machine” that is the Saskatchewan Party deserves some credit for the premier’s popularity, reflected in electoral success. NDP interim leader John Nilson’s low rating of 35 per cent doesn’t hurt either, Canseco said.
While the consistency of Wall’s ratings are “remarkable” and unlikely to change soon, the electorate can eventually experience “tiredness” with leaders, causing their popularity to quickly plummet, Canseco said, pointing to former B.C. premier Gordon Campbell. But for now, Wall’s numbers are “astounding,” especially compared with his counterparts.
Smith said “if Premier Wall was to resign tomorrow, there is no natural successor,” in the Sask. Party — although having no ministers who for now stand out at his level could be intentional, he said.
“The Sask. Party, love or hate them, hasn’t been radical on one side of the political spectrum the way that Grant Devine was in his second term,” he added, saying the government has so far shown it can “mitigate issues on a pragmatic level” — but problems could arise around concerns such as university funding and labour reform, he said.
The NDP also comes into play, Smith said, and the Sask. Party is clearly aware of that, running ads against all four leadership candidates — something he has “never seen before in provincial politics.”
Economy Minister Bill Boyd agreed the premier’s popularity stems from “not just the fact that he is a charismatic man, but also because of the fact that the province is doing very well.” He also acknowledged “some risk” in having so much riding on the leader.
But “certainly the party works to continue to put forward a positive message with respect to the premier and the economy of Saskatchewan, so I think the result speaks for itself,” he said.