Regina house prices cooling off
After a hot start in 2012, local market ‘flattens’ out
Despite the recent slowdown in sales, Regina home prices posted an average year-over-year increase of 13.2 per cent in November — the largest increase among major Canadian cities, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) said in its latest report Monday.
According to CREA, the average price of homes sold on the multiple listing service (MLS) in Regina in November was $309,219, compared with $273,243 in November 2011.
But the head of the local real estate board says the Regina market, which got off to a hot start in 2012, has actually been cooling down for the past five months as sales and prices are flat or falling.
“In the second half of the year, sales have cooled off,’’ said Gord Archibald, executive officer with the Association of Regina Realtors. Home sales in Regina were down 27 per cent in November from 2011 levels, the fourth consecutive month of falling sales.
Prices were also down in November from the previous month, reflecting a slowdown in the local market, although prices are still up substantially over the same period last year, Archibald said.
The association’s HPI (home price index), which measures the change in value of four benchmark properties in Canadian cities, also rose fastest in Regina (up 11.6 per cent year-overyear), although down from the increase of 13 per cent reported in October.
“If you look at the HPI, it indicates that prices have flattened out in the second half as well. Most of the price gains were in the first half.’’
The HPI in Regina was 283.2 and the composite price was $307,600 in November, down 1.3 per cent from the previous months, but up 11.6 per cent over last year.
But Archibald believes Regina — after posting 3,900 to 3,950 sales in 2012, “very similar to last year” — will see prices and sales remain high in 2013.
“The demographic and economic factors continue to point to a strong real estate market,” Archibald said. “We’re still seeing job growth and population growth and that certainly has a stimulative effect on demand.’’
Nationally, CREA now expects home sales this year to slip 0.5 per cent to 456,300 units, down from its September forecast of a 1.9-per-cent rise to 466,900 over last year. The industry association also expects sales next year to drop two per cent to 447,400, compared with earlier expectations for a drop of 1.9 per cent to 457,800 in 2013.
“Annual sales in 2012 reflect a stronger profile prior to recent mortgage rule changes followed by weaker activity following their implementation,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist.
“IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR, SALES HAVE COOLED
OFF.” GORD ARCHIBALD
“By contrast, forecast sales in 2013 reflect an improvement from levels this summer in the immediate wake of mortgage rule changes. Even so, sales in most provinces next year are expected to remain down from levels posted prior to the most recent changes to mortgage regulations.”
CREA said the average price for 2012 is expected to be $363,900, up 0.3 per cent compared with a September forecast of $365,000, up 0.6 per cent.
For 2013, CREA said it expects prices to gain 0.3 per cent to average $365,100. That compared with earlier expectations of a drop of one tenth of one per cent to $364,500 in 2013.
Sales were down on a yearover-year basis in three of every four of all local markets in November, including most large urban centres. Calgary stood out as an exception, with sales up 10.6 per cent from a year ago.
Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver contributed most to the small decline at the national level.