Trudeau poised to lead Liberals as Garneau bows out
OTTAWA — The federal Liberal leadership race appeared all but decided Wednesday as former astronaut Marc Garneau became the latest candidate to bow out and throw his support behind front-runner Justin Trudeau.
Fellow contender Joyce Murray and others vowed to continue fighting, but whether anyone can muster enough of a challenge to keep the 41-year-old son of Pierre Elliot Trudeau from cruising to an easy victory appears in doubt.
Exactly one month after he called a press conference on Parliament Hill to attack Trudeau’s lack of substance, Garneau said it was “mathematically” impossible for him to win.
Garneau said internal polling of 6,000 Liberal members and supporters conducted by his campaign had shown Trudeau trouncing the competition with 72 per cent support.
That compared to 15 per cent support for him, less than eight per cent for Murray, and just over five per cent for former MP Martha Hall Findlay, according to Garneau’s numbers.
“As far as I can see, it’s a fait accompli,” Garneau told reporters, voicing the thought many Canadians have had since Trudeau entered the leadership race in September.
Trudeau took to Twitter shortly afterward, writing: “Thank you @MarcGarneau for your support and for a lifetime of service to Canadians. Lots of work still to do, together!”
Garneau is the second leadership candidate to drop out of the race: Toronto lawyer George Takach abandoned his bid to lead the party and lined up behind Trudeau last month.
Murray, who has been riding a wave of momentum in recent weeks, acknowledged she was surprised by Garneau’s decision to pull out, but said she had no intention of quitting with exactly one month left to go before the results are known April 14.
“It’s not a fait accompli,” Murray told Postmedia News. “The game is long.”
Other leadership candidates also said they plan to stay in the race until the end.
“I’m in this race because I have strong views about what the Liberal Party needs, and what Canada needs,” Hall Findlay said in a statement. “That’s the Canada I want to build, that’s why I’m running, and that’s why I’m running until Liberals make their final choice.”
“The race is only starting,” said Martin Cauchon, a former minister under Jean Chretien. “We have many, many milestones ahead of us. People are still looking at the debates and most of them haven’t really made up their minds.”
“It’s not over till it’s over,” Ottawa-area lawyer David Bertschi said. “It’s not over until the last ballot is counted.”
The challengers also dismissed Garneau’s polling numbers. Murray pointed to national opinion polls that show a majority of Liberals are in support of working with the NDP and Green party in the next election. Proof, she said, that her own ideas have resonance.
But the numbers do appear to confirm what many have long believed true — namely, that Trudeau has the race locked up.
Liberal MP John McKay, one of the three sitting Liberal MPs to have thrown his support behind Garneau, was disappointed the former astronaut was dropping out, but said he understood, given the signs that Trudeau’s lead appeared insurmountable.
“He was the guy with the right stuff at the wrong time,” McKay said. “I think Marc would make a fabulous leader of the party, and ultimately prime minister. But it came down to numbers.”
But only time will tell how many other leadership hopefuls will pull out before the new Liberal leader is announced in Ottawa April 14.
Asked whether he would commit to staying in the race until the ballots are all counted, Cauchon replied: “Nobody’s going to commit, but today my firm intention is to stay until the end.”
Similarly, Bertschi would only say it was his “intention” to go to the end, but he would not make a firm promise to remain until the final ballot is cast.
Instead, both candidates said they plan to continue working to woo Liberal members and supporters to their camps, including those who previously backed Garneau.
Garneau acknowledged that “the odds were long” that he could win from the very start, but he praised Trudeau for attracting Canadians to the Liberal party during the race.
But his endorsement also raised eyebrows, since the former astronaut had repeatedly questioned his rival’s credentials during the race.
Even Wednesday, Garneau said Trudeau had “risen to the occasion,” but he wouldn’t say whether he thought Trudeau was the right person for the job.
Instead, he repeatedly said the vast majority of Liberal members and supporters believe Trudeau is best suited for the job, “and I will support the leader, and that leader will be Justin Trudeau.”
Asked if he was simply jumping on the Trudeau bandwagon, Garneau replied: “I’m very comfortable with (Trudeau’s) principles and values and morals.”
The remaining candidates offered words of praise for Garneau, saying his candidacy made both the leadership race and the Liberal party stronger.
“We are a stronger party today because Marc Garneau ran for leadership,” Hall Findlay said. “We are all grateful.”
But his decision to endorse Trudeau after weeks of criticizing the front-runner was surprising to some.
“I don’t understand,” Cauchon said. “Over the past few weeks, what he told Canadians was he didn’t believe (Trudeau) has the experience or the vision. I believe what was true then is still true now, so why is he taking such a decision?”
Many Liberals were excited when the 63-year-old Garneau entered the race last year because it meant Trudeau would face a challenger with national name recognition.
Yet Garneau seemed to be forever playing catch up. He was able to win support from only a handful of caucus members while the majority went to Trudeau.
Some will trace the beginning of the end of Garneau’s candidacy to a controversial press conference he held in February where he attacked Trudeau’s reluctance to talk policy.
Garneau’s criticisms generated some Liberal nods of approval and discussion about where Trudeau stood on key issues.
But some say the attack actually ended up hurting Garneau more, generating questions about whether he had abandoned his “niceguy” image out of a feeling of desperation when signs indicated Trudeau was cruising to victory.
One Liberal MP, Scott Brison, even said he was “somewhat disappointed” with Garneau’s attack on Trudeau, and described it as “not in character with my friend Marc Garneau,” while Trudeau accused Garneau of waging a negative campaign.