Hong Kong protests volatile
Fight for democracy lost in scuffle
HONG KONG — Three weeks ago, students at a rally stormed a fenced-off courtyard outside Hong Kong’s government headquarters, triggering unprecedented mass protests for greater democracy in the semi-autonomous Chinese city.
Since then, the movement has spiralled into a volatile and dangerous crisis with no clear endgame. Support for protesters is waning, as days of violent clashes between activists, their opponents and police overshadow the movement. Vast differences over political reforms divide the students and the government. Key thoroughfares remain closed. Some protesters are digging in for the long haul, while others fight to retake ground lost to police.
Against this backdrop, a government offer to negotiate with students appears unlikely to resolve the largest uprising since the former British colony returned to Chinese control 17 years ago.
Here are three key questions as the democracy protests continue to unfold:
What is the Hong Kong government’s strategy?
Hong Kong authorities have been inconsistent both in handling the students’ call for political reform and in tactics to clear the streets.
The city’s highly unpopular leader, Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying, angered protesters when he called off scheduled talks last week, saying a constructive outcome was unlikely. He then revived the proposal for talks a week later, amid public anger over a video showing police beating a handcuffed protester. Even if the talks materialize, chances are slim they could resolve the deadlock quickly.
Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s police appear entirely unprepared as they face a level of civil unrest not seen in the territory for decades.
The volatility and Leung’s ineffective leadership are putting pressure on police to maintain order, said Steve Vickers, former head of intelligence with the colonialera Royal Hong Kong police force.
“The absence of any dialogue between the government and the public puts the police in a very exposed position,” he said. “The inability of the Hong Kong government to directly make decisions is exacerbating the situation. What I’m saying is (Leung) is not fully in charge.”
Where does the protest movement stand?
From the start, a key feature of the protests has been their amorphous and organic nature. Three groups at the heart of the movement have rallied the crowds and led efforts to negotiate protesters’ demands with the government, but there is no central leadership.
As the standoff drags on, factions of more radical protesters are breaking off from the peaceful sit-ins. For several nights in a row, large, rowdy crowds have stepped up their tactics to gain control of streets, scuffling with riot police. Most protesters say they want the movement to stay peaceful, and some are frustrated by the divisions among activists.
On Thursday, student leaders urged protesters not to let anger at police distract from the movement’s core purpose, or drive more ugly scenes that would spoil the movement’s public image.
“We came here to protest, not to let out our emotions,” Joshua Wong, an 18-year-old student leader, told protesters.
What are the likely outcomes?
The Hong Kong government now faces myriad scenarios, none of them particularly palatable.
Both sides could try to move forward on talks based on minor compromises. Officials hinted Thursday that there could be room for manoeuvring over how a committee that nominates Hong Kong’s leader is picked, and that changes to elections could take place after 2017.
The students also could be placated by Leung’s resignation, though it’s unlikely that Chinese President Xi Jinping would allow that, given his hardline stance on dissent in China’s other outlying regions, such as Tibet.
In the shorter term, authorities could continue trying to wait the students out while police clear more protest zones in surprise raids.
Vickers said the single biggest risk in the days ahead is the escalation of clashes between the protesters and their opponents, including criminal gangs that are suspected of being paid by shadowy pro-Beijing groups to stir up trouble.
“Police are going to be caught between the two groups, and that is not a nice place to be,” he said.