Extra run-off not seen as major flood risk

The Saskatchewan Water Security Agency is projecting above-normal spring run-off for central and east parts of the province, including Regina and Saskatoon.

But that doesn’t mean this area should expect to see any major flooding events from the run-off.

“Even though it’s above-normal, we’re not saying it’s high or extreme or anything like that,” John Fahlman, associate executive director of hydrology and groundwater services, said Monday.

“We’re not expecting it to be as bad as the past few years. There is still a chance that we can get some pretty big rains. Again, this is just the snowmelt aspect of it.”

A forecast last month projected the spring run-off in the southcentral area ranging from Meadow Lake and Prince Albert to Weyburn as near-normal. But Fahlman explained the revised rating to above-normal is due to the amount of snow that fell in February. The recent snow survey also found more water in the snowpack than previously believed.

Fahlman said the run-off should cause water levels in Wascana Lake to rise. As well, similar to last spring, agricultural areas can expect some flooding, but “nothing extreme.”

Fahlman added that last summer’s heavy rainfall and ground saturation will be factors this spring.

“When you have that much precipitation over the summer and sometimes into the fall, it takes a while for the landscape to dry off,” he said.

“And, a lot of the sloughs in those areas (central and eastern Saskatchewan) are still full. The landscape doesn’t have a lot of capacity to absorb this as in a normal year … Even though there is not a record amount of snow there, that’s another reason why that area, we’re predicting slightly above-normal run-off.”

If March continues to have warmer temperatures and melting snow during the day combined with cooler temperatures at night — that could produce a “long, slow, controlled melt” and “keep peaks from going up.”

In one of the hardest-hit areas last year — Last Mountain Lake — Fahlman said water levels are expected to climb to where they were in April. Unless there is another big rainfall, water levels are expected to recede throughout the summer.

“It’s going to be higher than the ideal level, but it’s not going to be as high as it was last year.”

North of Meadow Lake is expected to have near-normal runoff, while farther north, areas like Key Lake, La Ronge and Buffalo Narrows are projected to have below-normal run-off. South of Kindersley and Elbow, communities such as Lucky Lake, Leader and Swift Current are expected to have near-normal run-off, while to the southwest, Eastend and Val Marie are projected to have belownormal run-off.