Hard truths about the war with ISIL
Archeologists and lovers of history everywhere fear ISIL, which swept into Palmyra this week, will smash one of the world’s most romantic sets of ruins to smithereens because it has already smashed several shibboleths about the state of the wars in Iraq a
1. ISIL is not on the run. Following its loss of Kobani in Syria to the Kurds and of Tikrit in Iraq in April, the United States seemed to think ISIL would implode. It hasn’t.
2. ISIL is phenomenally well-run as a desert strike force. An airstrike has reportedly incapacitated its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and its first deputy leader, while the Iraqis claim — unconvincingly — its new acting leader has also been killed. A score or more other senior leaders have been killed.
But its middle-ranking cadres, many former officers in the army of Saddam Hussein, are skilled military tacticians who were able to out-think both the Syrian army and, more worryingly, the U.S.trained Iraqi security forces.
3. Syrian President Bashar Assad’s army is losing. For years it was vaunted as “the strongest army in the Middle East” and some of his defenders in both the East and West said Assad was “the only hope” for Syria. It is now clear his demoralized army is on the run — from ISIL in the east, from Jabhat al-Nusra and other rebel groups in the northwest. It is on the defensive in the south and near Damascus.
4. The Iraqi army is better — but not much so and it is hamstrung by its leaders. Ramadi’s defenders held on longer and with more guts than they are being given credit for — they were surrounded for months and at the end faced a devastating assault led by concerted suicide explosions each the size of the Oklahoma City bombing, according to American officials quoted by the New York Times.
But promised reinforcements never arrived and its heavy weapons were for some reason not deployed — instead, they were captured by ISIL.
5. Current U.S. strategy may have held up ISIL, but will not defeat it. U.S. President Barack Obama is sure of only two things — he can fight ISIL from the air and will minimize “boots on the ground.” But the ground forces he has agreed to arm and train — the Iraqi security forces and some “moderate” Syrian rebels — are as yet too weak to fight ISIL.
6. The wars in Iraq and Syria are not solely sectarian. Sunni tribes prepared to fight Sunni ISIL are more and more prepared to have their voice heard and even to join forces with Shia militias previously seen as sectarian. In Syria, the city of Tadmur, where Palmyra is located, is largely Sunni but its inhabitants fled the approach of ISIL.
7. Everything every government everywhere has done in both wars has deepened sectarian divides. The Assad regime has retrenched to its Alawite core, marginalizing Sunni members of the inner circle and government. It has been supported by Shia Iran — which has deployed its militias to mainly Shia areas.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey have given priority in their backing to Sunni Islamist rebel groups. In Iraq, the government stopped paying loyal Sunni tribal militias because they were not part of the army but has now called on Shia militias to fight.
8. Only militias, not armies, have the strategic and tactical flexibility to fight ISIL, which is strategically and tactically very flexible. Kurdish militias have defeated ISIL in northeast Syria, Islamist rebel militias have defeated them in the northwest and south and Shia militias have defeated them in Iraq. But the Iraqi and Syrian regular armies have failed.
9. U.S.-led coalition airstrikes are vital — but only once ISIL has been allowed to become entrenched. Without strikes, the Kurds would not have saved Kobani and Iraq’s Shia militias would not have retaken Tikrit. But where ISIL has tried to make inroads outside its core territory, in southern Syria for example, it has been beaten back by other rebel groups; at least once they received weapons supplies from their Gulf backers.
10. Only hard choices remain and Obama is not going to take them. In most of Iraq and Syria, the only forces that can defeat ISIL are either backed by Iran or are Sunni Islamists. It need not have been this way, but it is. Obama is vicariously backing both, by acting as air cover to Shia militias in Iraq and allowing American allies like Saudi Arabia and Qatar to support Islamists in Syria.
But by not acknowledging this policy, he is giving up American influence on the eventual outcome. When Obama leaves office in 18 months, he will have kept his hands clean, but will leave chaos behind.