Assad’s allies key to his hopes of surviving civil war
BEIRUT — Russia’s military intervention in Syria has deepened the sense that President Bashar Assad may survive the country’s disastrous civil war, and his surprise visit to Moscow — a first foray out in nearly five years — underscores how emboldened the Syrian leader has become.
The show of force by the two allies is a challenge to a U.S. administration whose response on Syria is widely seen in the region as inconsistent and chaotic.
Whether it is also part of a quiet Russian push to engineer a political transition in Syria on President Vladimir Putin’s terms is yet to be seen. Such a scenario would do wonders for the Russian leader’s evident ambition to seize centre stage in world affairs.
Either way, the visit shows remarkable resilience that Assad was able to leave Syria without fear of a coup or arrest after presiding over a rare descent into hell: Half the country’s population has been displaced, at least a quarter million people have been killed and Islamic State militants are in control of large swaths of territory. Here’s a look at how Assad has come this far:
DETERMINED PERSONA
In five years of civil war, Assad has never once wavered from his calm, confident public persona as a man fighting to protect Syria from al-Qaida-type Islamic extremists bent on destroying the country. Using a mixture of brute force and a consistent portrayal of the conflict as a war on terror, the 50-year-old former eye doctor has defied every prediction that his end is near.
His forces’ use of military might against mostly peaceful protesters early in the conflict quickly earned him near-pariah status. Yet Assad was unflinching in sticking to his narrative, and often appeared fuelled by an unshakable belief that Syria would collapse without him.
Before the uprising erupted, Assad had cultivated an image of himself as a nationalist hero fighting Western imperialism and ensuring stable, secular rule in a turbulent region wracked by sectarian wars. That allowed him to rally support that stretched beyond his minority Alawite base. He still retains a significant amount of support from Alawites and other minority sects who view him as a bulwark for ensuring their survival.
FRIENDS LIKE THESE
The fact Assad has survived the war is largely due to powerful allies Iran and Russia, which have used political, financial and military means to shore up his forces. Their unswerving support is in sharp contrast to the muddled response by the U.S. administration, and has injected a self-assurance that Assad would not be allowed to fall.
The two allies have gradually ramped up support of Assad throughout the conflict, especially at times when his forces appeared to be nearing collapse.
Iran has devoted millions of dollars’ worth of aid to propping up the Syrian army and funding Iranianbacked militias, especially Lebanon’s Hezbollah, to fight alongside Assad. It also sent military experts and advisers and recently began deploying Revolutionary Guards to fight alongside government forces.
Russia has consistently used its veto power at the UN Security Council to shield Assad and last month began airstrikes in Syria following significant territorial losses by government forces to the rebels. That has allowed the government to launch multiple offensives on several fronts and make small but steady advances.
CHEMICAL WEAPONS DEAL
The agreement reached by the U.S. and Russia in September 2013 under which Assad would give up his chemical weapons arsenal gave a major boost to the Syrian leader. The last-minute agreement averted U.S.-led strikes against the Syrian government as punishment for a deadly chemical weapons attack in Damascus on Aug. 21, 2013, something President Barack Obama had declared would be a “red line.”
ISIL ADVANCES
The rise of Islamic extremists in Syria, including ISIL with its spectacular atrocities, has eclipsed the wider civil war and shifted attention away from Assad. By reducing the discourse on Syria to the battle against ISIL, many charge that the West has served Assad’s interests and reinforced his narrative about the conflict being driven by Islamic extremists.