Hiking minimum wage in Alberta could lead to job losses: report

More research needs to be done, according to internal NDP note

An internal government document shows the NDP administration can’t currently evaluate the impact of its plan to raise Alberta’s minimum wage to $15 per hour by 2018 and that “significant job loss” could be a “realistic possibility.”

The briefing note was prepared for Jobs, Skills, Training and Labour Minister Lori Sigurdson in June and obtained by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business through a freedom of information request.

The note from department officials says more research needs to be done on the effect of significantly hiking the minimum wage over a four-year span and that “Alberta will essentially be sailing into uncharted waters at this point.”

Richard Truscott, the CFIB’s vice-president for British Columbia and Alberta, said the document shows the “shoot first, ask questions later approach to policy development this government is becoming known for.”

“With little to no evidence, they have embarked on an enormous new policy initiative that will have a profound effect on Alberta’s economy for generations to come — and there is little to no research available,” he said in an interview.

The NDP’s winning campaign platform for the May 5 provincial election pledged to increase the then $10.20-an-hour minimum wage to $15 by 2018.

On Oct. 1, the minimum wage was raised by a dollar, making it the third-highest in the country.

The briefing note suggests the autumn hike to the minimum wage would not likely have a significant impact on the economy.

It noted that businesses were used to an annual raise to the hourly wage and that — even though it would be higher than usual — the increase would not be “abnormal.”

However, the note said that raising the wage to $15 an hour in 2018 would represent a “practically unique moment.”

“At this point it is not fully known what the overall impact of this kind of upwards wage pressure would have on what is still an uncertain economy, but it is reasonable to assume that job loss, and perhaps significant job loss is one realistic possibility,” the document reads.

“However, ‘possibility’ is not really ‘prediction’ and the major research needed to better understand these impacts has not yet been carried out.”

Truscott said the note contradicts the government line repeated by both Sigurdson and Premier Rachel Notley that increasing the minimum wage will actually boost hiring.

He said the government is doing a disservice to businesses that will pay the price for an “irresponsible” policy.

Sigurdson was not made available to comment Tuesday.

In a statement, she noted the minimum wage hike was a campaign promise and the government consulted last summer with business and other Albertans on the increase.