A late Saskatchewan budget likely means bad news within it

What was already likely to be a very bad budget year may have just got a little worse.

The good news is Premier Brad Wall and company have managed to hold off delivering the bad news until June 1.

Well, that’s actually not very good news.

In fact, it’s pretty crappy news, although the delay affords hope there will be time to make smarter decisions.

To be clear, the reason the 2016-17 budget is late has everything to do with both internal and external politics impacting this province.

The less-manageable external factors go back to the October set federal election date legislated by former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper. That vote conflicted with Saskatchewan’s November set election date, which Premier Brad Wall fixed the day he came to power in 2007. The province moved its election to the spring, when the budget usually comes down.

The issue will be corrected in four and half years as Wall’s government moves the set election date back to November, starting in 2020, meaning future Saskatchewan election campaigns won’t conflict with the usual March budget. (This change comes at the modest price of the Wall government extending this mandate another seven months to accommodate the November 2020 date.)

Some will argue that Wall’s option of a late February budget (as was done in the two past April elections in Saskatchewan) would have been a bit too early.

But let us be clear that it was Wall and company’s choice of an April 4 election date. A later April date would have made a March budget presentation completely workable.

And let us be further clear that the early April date was likely part of an overall political strategy to have an excuse not to run on what will be an unpopular budget, which — had it been presented earlier and been top-of-mind during the campaign — would have potentially cost the Saskatchewan Party at least some of the close seats it wound up winning.

This takes us to the logical expectation that — later rather than sooner — we are going to be hit with a lot of bad budget news. One doesn’t have to read much between the lines to see that is exactly what Wall is already messaging.

Last week, Wall informed reporters of the June 1 budget date, but what was more telling were the hints he dropped about what lies ahead and the “difficult decisions” that will accompany another deficit.

For what it’s worth, Wall said the deficit will be smaller than 2015-16’s projected $427-million deficit (that doesn’t including $700 million in borrowing that vaults last year’s deficit to more than $1.2 billion). However, the Sask. Party government projected a surplus at budget time last year, making the June 1 budget all that scarier.

Wall also repeated his election promise not to raise taxes and to find savings within the budget itself, including the Sask. Party’s proposal to save a modest $7.5 million by reducing health region administration.

Otherwise, Wall also committed last week to not reducing budgets in health, education and social services that account for the lion’s share of provincial government spending. In the campaign, the Sask. Party also promised $70 million more for highways over three years.

Cuts will have to be found elsewhere, although Regina Mayor Michael Fougere said he’s not worried about cuts to municipal revenue because the city has already been told it would get its $42.1-million share — an $800,000 increase from the 201516 budget.

Others aren’t so comforted as they prepare their own budgets.

“This kind of compresses some of that timeline, so there will be a little more speculative scenarios being run by many school divisions,” said Connie Bailey, Saskatchewan School Boards Association president. “Decisions can’t be made until we know our budgets, what the dollars are.”

And while Fougere and others may be comforted that Wall’s words mean little or no cuts to the operating side, there are now fears about cuts to capital spending.

Clearly, something will have to give.

And all the late budget has done is keep us in suspense for two more months.