ANALYZING TRUMP’S UNEXPECTED SUCCESS
Jim Farney couldn’t have predicted this. The political scientist and University of Regina professor is just as floored as most by Donald Trump’s rise during the U.S. presidential campaign. Farney will be talking about Trump’s journey during Science Pub at
Q Why did you want to talk about Trump?
A One of the things scientists do is predict, and there was no way in 2007 I was going to see Trump coming. And I don’t think in 2014 there was any way I was going to see Trump coming.
Q So what explains his rise to success?
A I think there’s probably two big shifts going on … Today there’s a much stronger antiimmigrant, nativist, isolationist strand (among conservatives) and Trump has really picked up on that.
I think there’s also just generally a lot of alienation and a lot of anger in a lot of developed countries’ politics, maybe especially in the U.S. You saw it with (Bernie) Sanders and you’re seeing it with Trump on the other side. And I think that sort of thing eventually hits a tipping point, where it becomes really politically powerful.
It’s like a feeling that people have more than an identity or an economic interest. It’s a sense that the world’s not quite right and even if this guy’s policy positions maybe aren’t always terribly consistent, he’s at least articulating the feeling that his supporters have — that the world’s not quite as it ought to be — and that’s really powerful.
Q Why does this election hold an interest for Canadians?
A Mostly it’s just such a great story; it’s like how did this happen? I think we watched 2008, Obama’s first election, just as carefully … We always pay such close attention because we’re living next to an elephant.
Q Has Trump’s celebrity status contributed to his success?
A It’s interest and it’s trust. I think a lot of people go, “Oh, we’ve seen this guy on TV and he’s not a career politician, that must make him more trustworthy.” Whereas Hillary has been involved in campaigns since ’60; she’s kind of the ultimate career politician. And a lot of this does come down to how trustworthy people are.
Q Might Trump open the door for celebrities campaigning in the future, like Kanye West for 2020?
A We had Jesse Ventura the wrestler as a governor. The archetype is Ronald Reagan, and if you go back to ’79 and ’80, a lot of people were talking about Reagan the way we’re talking about Trump right now: How did this divorced lightweight of a former actor end up as president? And the answer we can see in retrospect is he was really good on TV and he articulated a vision that a lot of people supported; that seems to be basically what Trump’s doing now.