EI numbers decline for fourth month

Labour market shows ‘some sign of life’ with construction poised for turnaround

Employment insurance numbers in Saskatchewan are down for the fourth straight month, according to Statistics Canada.

In data released Thursday, 770 Saskatchewan residents came off EI between January and February, which is a change of 4.1 per cent. Last year during the same time frame 2,140 people went onto EI.

Doug Elliott, statistician and publisher of Sask Trends Monitor, said this change could be due to two reasons.

“I’m inclined to think this is sort of an 80-20 thing. I think 20 per cent of this is recovery in the labour market and 80 per cent is just plain running out of benefits,” he said.

The number of unemployed people in the province has been steadily declining. In March, unemployment decreased by 2.6 per cent compared to the same time last year.

However Elliott said this change also could be due to people running out of benefits. People can only be on EI for a certain amount of time, which depends on how the job market is where they live and their length of employment.

“There is some sign of life in the labour market. So that means some of the folks on EI will be finding work so numbers will start to get lower,” he said.

In March, the private sector employment rate rose by 2.1 per cent, while the public sector only increased by 0.9 per cent.

“We’re still seeing pretty substantial declines in construction, and that’s probably where a lot of them were working when they got laid off. So they may have lost a construction job, been on EI for a while and now have got a job driving a truck or something,” Elliott said.

John Lax, manager of the Saskatchewan Construction Association, said construction in the province has been down significantly in the past 24 months — 2015 was a record year for the industry with $1.7 billion in building permits issued.

“Within our sector it’s clear that we’ve reached the trough. That doesn’t mean we’re bouncing back yet though, and we have not seen significant hiring to date,” he said.

But the future is looking bright for the construction industry, according to Lax. In the last two months, more building permits have been issued, which means in mid-to-late-2017 the construction industry should pick up.

“It won’t be as hot as it was during the boom, but it’ll be more than enough to keep the industry booming,” he said.

I think 20 per cent of this is recovery in the labour market and 80 per cent is just plain running out of benefits.