Province can expect an average summer
Normal precipitation likely and drought shouldn’t be a concern, says meteorologist
If all goes according to plan, Saskatchewan can anticipate a fairly average summer in terms of temperature and precipitation, says a Weather Network meteorologist.
“The good news is that the forecast for the summer is not looking too bad,” said Kelly Sonnenburg, adding that the weather pattern that has developed in the spring should not be altered as summer arrives.
“Pretty much the entire province of Saskatchewan has a pretty similar story.”
Sonnenburg said there are no predictors of above average or hotter temperatures or lack of precipitation, so drought should not be a concern. On average, Saskatoon and area get high temperatures in the mid-20 C range. That won’t change this year, she said.
The only variables that could shift that line of thinking are a trough expected to build over Manitoba and northwestern Ontario and a ridge of warmer temperatures expected across the entire province of British Columbia. If either of those expected weather patterns shifts significantly, it could alter both temperatures and precipitation predictions in Saskatchewan.
“Saskatchewan is going to be right in the middle of this.” Sonnenburg says. “You can’t get a much better forecast than this.”
Just like last summer, Sonnenburg said the city can expect some cooler days and some hotter days, since no overriding indicator suggests otherwise.
The province averages between 45 millimetres and 65 millimetres of rain each month during the summer; Sonnenburg said her weather models are not predicting any change again year.
“Precipitation will be near normal.”
However, when thunderstorms do pop up, as they will every summer, rain totals can rise significantly due to daytime heating that often affects the prairies. Warmer mornings often lead to afternoon thundershowers that can persist into the evening.
“It can be very skewed data,” she said.
Sonnenburg, who has been working on summer forecasts for the past three years, said people want her to tell them they can expect a good summer.
“As we head into the next few months, we expect similar patterns to persist.”
One more area we cannot forget is the possibility of cold core funnel clouds that build primarily over the prairies in the summer months when daytime heating triggers severe thunderstorms, she noted. They can spawn tornado activity and lead to warnings from Environment Canada.
“It gets people excited. We often see the images over social media.”
Saskatchewan is going to be right in the middle of this. You can’t get a much better forecast than this.