New poll takes snapshot of fledgling Tory race
TOPS LEADERSHIP HOPEFULS IN ‘WINNABILITY’ AHEAD OF REMPEL, DELTELL, MACKAY
Canadians believe former Conservative interim leader Rona Ambrose has a strong “winnability” factor as a potential successor to Andrew Scheer at the helm of the party, a new poll from the DART & Maru/blue polling group suggests.
The survey found that among several prominent suggested candidates, Ambrose has the perceived leadership qualities and name recognition that make her the person most able to beat Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in a federal election.
Ambrose has made no public comments about her potential candidacy but several sources have told the National Post she is considering her options.
This poll is designed to be an early test of a candidate’s “winnability,” not the voting intent of Conservative Party members, said John Wright, a partner at DART Communications.
Alberta MP Michelle Rempel and Quebec MP
Gérard Deltell rounded out the top three, respectively. Former cabinet minister Peter Mackay came fourth.
Wright said the leadership score is a way to put all the candidates on a level playing field.
“This can’t just be a popularity contest in the Conservative Party,” said Wright. “People are looking at the leadership qualities and this is a public assessment of that.”
While members of the Conservative Party are weighing up a variety of factors in how they plan to cast their vote, part of that decision is how the public perceives each candidate and how likely the person is to beat Trudeau in a federal election. This poll provides an early attempt to reveal that information.
Mackay has the most name recognition of any potential candidate with 56 per cent of Canadians aware of him, compared to 48 per cent for Ambrose. Only 19 per cent of Canadians were aware of Rempel and 17 per cent were aware of Deltell, although both candidates seem to draw positive reviews from respondents who know who they are.
Ambrose trumps Mackay on every leadership category, though, particularly on the question of “who will unite the country” and “who has values closest to my own.” Forty-two per cent of Canadians who are aware of Ambrose think she can unite the country and 36 per cent think she shares their values. Thirty-seven per cent of Canadians think Mackay can unite the country, while 32 per cent think he shares their values.
The poll looked at seven potential candidates who have been speculated as replacements for the Conservative leadership. Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper was added for comparative purposes.
Former cabinet ministers Lisa Raitt, James Moore and Erin O’toole round out the rankings. O’toole, who came in fourth in the 2017 Conservative leadership race, has 19 per cent name recognition. Among those who are aware of him, only 24 per cent say O’toole shares their values.
Wright said he was initially surprised by how well Rempel and Deltell scored on the poll, but noted that they both have significant support in their home provinces.
“Deltell has been in Quebec politics for a long time. He’s a regional strength,” said Wright.
That means if the Conservatives are keen to grow the party in Quebec, they may see Deltell as an exciting option as leader.
The DART & Maru/blue Voice Canada Poll was conducted among 1,513 randomly selected Canadian adult members of Maru/blue’s online panel on Dec. 13-14, 2019, and is considered accurate within +/- 2.9%.