Three top NFC contenders might really be pretenders
Statistical red flags suggest Seahawks, Packers and Saints could be playoff busts
WASHINGTON The NFC is overflowing with apparent heavyweights.
For just the third time since the league expanded to 32 teams in 2002, there are five NFC teams with at least 10 wins through Week 15. The Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks are all 11-3, with the Minnesota Vikings just a game back at 10-4, giving the conference a quintet of potential Super Bowl candidates.
However, not all of those teams are as impressive as their records suggest. And there is even a dark horse several games behind the leaders that could stage an early round surprise.
Let’s start at the top. The Seattle Seahawks, who would be the NFC’S No. 1 seed if the playoffs started today, have a point differential of plus-26, tying them with the 8-6 Los Angeles Rams for just the sixth-highest point differential in the NFC. One reason the Seahawks’ record is so much better than their point differential would indicate: Seattle’s record in onescore games. The Seahawks are a league-leading 9-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer, a massive red flag considering all the luck that goes into winning games by that slim a margin.
Many of the teams with strong records in one-score games are regression candidates for 2020, but that luck should also impact your view of their chances to make a deep playoff run. From 2002 to 2018, 17 teams recorded at least eight wins in one-score games during the regular season. Most of those teams (15) qualified for the playoffs, but only two, the 2006 Indianapolis Colts and 2015 Denver Broncos, won the Super Bowl. Only one other team, the 2003 Carolina Panthers, even appeared in the championship game.
Seattle is tied for 11th in the league in point differential. The past six Super Bowl winners — and 14 of the past 17 — have finished in the top 10. Nevertheless, oddsmakers are optimistic about Seattle’s post-season outlook, listing the Seahawks at 10-1 to win the title, the sixth-best odds.
The Dallas Cowboys, meanwhile, are still trying to punch their ticket into the playoffs. A win this Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles gets them there, but it shouldn’t have been this difficult to assert themselves as the best team in the NFC East.
The Cowboys have scored 378 points and allowed 288, giving them the third-best point differential (plus-90) in the conference and sixth-best in the NFL. We would expect a team with that point differential to have 10 wins (9.7 to be exact) at this point in the season; Dallas, on the other hand, is just 7-7. That difference between the Cowboys’ actual wins and expected wins is tied for the fourth worst at this point in the season since 2002. Two of the teams with similarly poor luck through Week 15 still made the playoffs — the 2009 Baltimore Ravens and 2010 Packers. Both went on the road and won their opening-round playoff games, and Green Bay went on to win the Super Bowl.
Point differential isn’t the only metric that signals the Cowboys have underachieved in terms of wins and losses. The game charters at Pro Football Focus list Dallas as the third-best team in the league this season, behind just the 11-3 Saints and 12-2 Ravens. And Football Outsiders ranks the Cowboys as the league’s eighth-most efficient team after accounting for strength of schedule.
A few of the teams the Cowboys could face in the playoffs, should they make it, actually have lesser resumés. Here are two other playoff-bound teams from the NFC that, like Seattle, could be worse than their records suggest.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Actual record: 11-3, expected record: 9-5
Green Bay’s point differential projects to nine wins over the first 15 weeks, but if you account for red-zone defence, first-quarter offence and performance in the second half when the score is close, you could expect eight wins, per Football Outsiders. If you adjust the Packers’ margin of victory for their strength of schedule, they are 2.8 points per game better than an average team, making them just the seventh-best NFC squad by this measure.
Plus, the strength of the Packers has always been their quarterback. Not this year. Aaron Rodgers, a two-time MVP, has been an average quarterback in 2019. According to ESPN’S Total Quarterback Rating — Rodgers has a 53.8 rating, 17th in the league — his play has only been good enough to support an 8-8 or 9-7 record over 16 games.
Green Bay’s defence is also below average (17th) according to Football Outsiders’ Defence-adjusted Value Over Average, which measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Actual record: 11-3, expected record: 9-5
Drew Brees and the Saints mauled the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night, with Brees completing 29 of 30 pass attempts for an Nfl-record 96.7 completion rate and passing Peyton Manning for the most touchdown passes in NFL history.
But the Saints have also thrived in one-score games. Their 6-1 record in those contests is topped only by the Seahawks. The Saints’ three blowout wins — Monday’s against the Colts, a 22-point victory over the Arizona Cardinals and a 17-point win at the expense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — all came against teams at or below .500. And New Orleans is just 2-2, with a negative point differential, against teams with a winning record. The Saints are 9-1 with a plus-87 differential against everyone else.
Looked at another way, opponents at or below .500 are scoring 8.4 fewer points per 100 snaps than expected against the Saints based on the down, distance and field position of each play, per data from Trumedia. Opponents with a winning record, on the other hand, have scored 15.4 more points than expected per 100 snaps against New Orleans in 2019. Only the defences of the Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans and Oakland Raiders have performed worse against winning teams. That’s a warning sign entering the playoffs.