NAMING NAMES
Critic makes Oscar picks
92nd Academy Awards Sunday, ABC/CTV
This week my email contained invitations to participate in two separate surveys about the eventual winners of the 2020 Academy Awards.
But they couldn’t be more different. One, from film industry website Indiewire, wants to know “which films SHOULD win the Oscars among this year’s nominees.”
The other, from the Toronto Film Critics Association (TFCA), asks me to weigh in with “what you think WILL win.”
Determining which films WILL win means parsing the various prizes already handed out by the guilds of producers, writers and actors, whose memberships overlap that of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. It also means trying to get inside the minds of the roughly 10,000 academy voters.
Naming who SHOULD win — “among this year’s nominees,” which means I can’t choose
Eddie Murphy’s un-nominated but fantastic turn in Dolemite Is My Name — is a more personal decision, one we all play when we tune in Sunday night and hope our favourites make it. Here’s how my ballots look. Full disclosure: My record of picking winners is terrible, so go all-in in your various pools with these choices at your peril.
BEST PICTURE
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time
… in Hollywood
Parasite
Will win: 1917. Sam Mendes’s First World War drama has already been crowned with awards from the producers’ and directors’ guilds. It’s also the “safe” choice alongside the divisive (though heavily nominated) Joker. It would, however, be an oddity, since only 11 films have won best picture with no acting nominations. The last one was Slumdog Millionaire in 2009.
Should win: Parasite. No foreign-language film has ever won best picture, though nominations are more frequent of late, including last year’s Roma, Amour in 2013 and two nominees — Babel and Letters from Iwo Jima — in 2007. It remains to be seen if the academy can clear what director Bong Joon Ho called “the oneinch-tall barrier of subtitles” and reward this incredible story.
BEST ACTOR
Antonio Banderas,
Pain and Glory
Leonardo Dicaprio, Once
Upon a Time … in Hollywood Adam Driver, Marriage Story Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes Will win: Phoenix. The four-time nominee was the make-or-break puzzle piece in Joker, and the Screen Actors Guild has already named him best actor. (SAG members make up the largest voting bloc in the academy.) Should win: Pryce. A much quieter (and funnier) performance came from this first-time nominee, playing reluctant Pope Francis I in The Two Popes. It helps that he’s a papal look-alike, but his performance goes far beyond mere imitation.
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women Charlize Theron, Bombshell Renée Zellweger, Judy
Will win: Zellweger. She sounded almost angry when she won the Golden Globe. “Y’all look pretty good 17 years later,” she said pointedly, presumably referring to her last win for Cold Mountain in 2004. “Thank you to the Hollywood Foreign Press Association for inviting me back to the family reunion.” But huffy or not, she disappears into the role of Judy Garland for the biopic Judy. Should win: Zellweger. No question. Here’s a performer I can never watch without thinking about the actor playing the character. Until Judy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins,
The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood
Will win: Pitt. We don’t usually think of Pitt as a supporting actor, and neither does the academy. He’s been nominated twice before in leading roles (Moneyball and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), with a sole supporting nod for Twelve Monkeys in 1995. But his laidback performance as Dicaprio’s character’s stunt double in Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood is the perfect supporting turn for both character and actor.
Should win: Pitt or Hopkins. Pitt’s perfect, but I have a soft spot for Hopkins, playing “straight man” Pope Benedict XVI opposite Pryce’s Francis I in The Two Popes. And there have been a handful of ties before, most recently for sound editing in 2013. So anything ’s possible.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell Laura Dern, Marriage Story Scarlett Johansson,
Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Will win: Dern. She actually has two awards-worthy performances this season: She’s nominated for playing a predatory divorce lawyer in Marriage Story and also does a great turn as the mother in Greta Gerwig ’s Little Women. A winner at the Golden Globes, the British BAFTAS and numerous critics’ awards, this is her Oscar moment.
Should win: Dern. Heck, I’d give her two Oscars.
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese,
The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Will win: Mendes. 1917 and/or Mendes have already won best film and/or director prizes from BAFTA, the Critics’ Choice Awards (of which I’m a voting member), the Golden Globes and the producers’ and directors’ guilds. So Mendes is definitely on track for Oscar gold.
Should win: Tarantino. Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood is a real moviegoer’s movie, set in 1969 Tinseltown and featuring a host of real and fictional characters, often seamlessly conjoined. If there’s an upset brewing, this is it.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Knives Out
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time
… in Hollywood
Parasite
Will win: Parasite. The academy has only given this prize to five foreign-language films, most recently Talk to Her in 2002. Given that viewers had to read the screenplay (sort of ) in the subtitles, this could be the newest to break the language barrier. Should win: Marriage Story. There’s a lot of discussion among critics as to whether films win because they have the best writing or just the most. Marriage Story, with its arguments and legal proceedings and letters, certainly has a lot of screenplay. But I’d argue that it’s also the best, especially if moving viewers to tears counts for anything.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes
Will win: Jojo Rabbit. Taika Waititi’s wickedly funny satire got a boost from its recent prizes from BAFTA and the Writers Guild of America, not to mention its Oscar-attracting status as People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival.
Should win: The Two Popes. Anthony Mccarten’s adaptation of his stage play The Pope is brilliant, incisive and quite possibly the funniest religious movie since Life of Brian. Granted, it’s a distant second to Monty Python, but that doesn’t detract from its Oscar-worthiness.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Corpus Christi
Honeyland
Les Misérables
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Will win: Parasite. The newly renamed category — formerly best foreign-language film — is often the place where best picture nominees that aren’t in English get their recognition. Expect that to be the case this year, as well. Should win: Corpus Christi. I know I’ve said Parasite should win best picture, but in my whatif world it doesn’t need two prizes. So I give this one to the Polish entry, about a religious ex-con who is mistaken for a priest and decides to go along with it. Equal parts uplifting and thought-provoking.