Ovechkin could be the last to join NHL’S 700-goal club
The rest of the league’s top snipers face long odds in chasing scoring milestone
WASHINGTON Alex Ovechkin is two goals shy of joining Wayne Gretzky, Gordie Howe, Jaromir Jagr, Brett Hull, Marcel Dionne, Phil Esposito and Mike Gartner as the only players in NHL history to score 700 goals in their NHL careers.
Ovechkin likely will hit the mark in fewer than 1,200 games, with a chance to become the second-fastest in NHL history to reach the coveted milestone. He has played 1,137 games heading onto Saturday’s action.
Gretzky (886 games) and Hull (1,157 games) are the only players to reach it in fewer than 1,200 games. Ovechkin likely will become the second youngest, behind only Gretzky.
We usually see a new member of the 700 club every four to seven years — it’s been six years since Jagr got No. 700, and before him there was an 11-year drought — but it could be a very long time before we see another. The active player with next-most goals is Patrick Marleau of the San Jose Sharks, who has 561 but also is 40 years old.
Meanwhile, the league’s top young scorers haven’t had anything close to the start Ovechkin had to his career.
Consider how strong a start Ovechkin had in the NHL. The Great Eight tallied 163 goals during his first three years in the NHL, the most among active players and 44 more goals at that point in his career than Steven Stamkos, who is the second most prolific starter.
The rest of the league’s scoring leaders pale in comparison.
In his sixth season, David Pastrnak of the Boston Bruins, the 23-year-old contender for the Rocket Richard trophy this year, awarded to the league’s top goal scorer, has 170 career goals, including at least 34 in each of the past four seasons.
Auston Matthews of the Toronto
Maple Leafs, who doesn’t turn 23 until September, has 150 career goals, tallying at least 34 or more in each of his four NHL seasons.
MVP candidate Nathan Mackinnon of the Colorado Avalanche (age 24) has flourished over the past three seasons and now has 185 career goals in his seventh NHL season.
Ovechkin, by comparison, had 339 career goals by the end of 201112, his seventh year in the league.
And 23-year-old Edmonton Oilers superstar Connor Mcdavid, a former MVP and two-time points leader, has scored 41 goals each of the past two seasons and could be on his way to a third with 30 goals so far this season, but that still gives him 158 career goals in his fifth season.
Winnipeg Jets forward Patrik Laine, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2016 draft, started off strong with 36 goals as a rookie and 44 in his sophomore season, but his next season saw a dip to 30 goals and he has just 20 so far in his fourth season for 130 career goals.
In other words, the NHL’S best and brightest are all far behind the pace to join the 700-goal club.
To help determine the likelihood a player could join Ovechkin in the 700-goal club, we’re going to rely on the favourite toy, a formula created by Bill James that calculates the probability a player achieves a career statistical goal. It uses a three-year weighted average to determine a player’s future production.
By this method, Stamkos, a twotime Rocket Richard winner who turned 30 in February, has the best chance at reaching the 700-goal mark (43 per cent), followed by Pastrnak (40 per cent), Matthews (37 per cent) and Mackinnon (32 per cent).
Mcdavid, arguably the best player in the NHL, has a 28 per cent chance. Those are decent odds for any player under 25, yet they’re still low compared to Ovechkin at that same age.
For example, Ovechkin, at 23 years old, finished the 2008-09 campaign with a weighted threeyear average of 57 goals scored and 219 career goals by that point, giving him a 76 per cent chance of reaching the 700-goal plateau by the start of the next season. He was 50/50 to make the 700-goal club after his third season in the NHL.
The other player in this 30s with a decent chance at joining the 700goal club is Patrick Kane (20 per cent). Kane, 31, unlike Stamkos, has never dominated the goals category, but he has scored 21 or more goals every year for 13 years.