Sask. Party ads feed rumours of early election

Talk of an early provincial election just won’t go away

... and one suspects the Saskatchewan Party is quite happy about that.

One might even be a little suspicious that the Sask. Party is behind the rumours.

Now, far be it from me to accuse anyone of making such political mischief just to throw the competition off its game. But past governing parties have been known to feed speculation of an early election call — something you can get away with when you have a comfortable majority, a sizable lead in the opinion polls and far too much free time on your hands.

It’s also fun to throw stuff against the wall and see what sticks ... as the Sask. Party seems to be doing with its recent TV ads aimed at defining NDP Leader Ryan Meili as “not one of us” in advance of the election.

Of course, as far as voters of this province should be concerned, Saskatchewan’s 29th general election will be held on Oct. 26, 2020.

This is the second vote that has had to be changed since a set election date law was established to hold provincial elections the first Monday in November. What should have been a 2015 campaign was pushed ahead to the following spring, and this year the date was moved up to not interfere too much with Nov. 9 municipal elections across Saskatchewan.

And, as it turns out, they still may not have got it right.

How’s this for potential irony? There were rumblings in Ottawa this week of the Conservative Opposition forcing a non-confidence vote in the current minority Parliament — an unlikely scenario, given that the Conservatives are in throes of a party leadership race and would be forced to go to the polls with Andrew Scheer, who even Conservatives don’t want to be the next prime minister. But after the June Conservative leadership vote, might the Opposition push for a non-confidence vote, spurring a fall federal election? If so, is it possible that in

Saskatchewan we could see simultaneous municipal, provincial and federal campaigns?

Such notions only add to rumours of an April provincial vote, that actually makes sense for a few other reasons:

The last provincial vote in Saskatchewan was held on April 4, 2016, so an early April vote would put the Sask. Party back on the four-year election cycle. It would also lessen the chance of voter turnout being interrupted by an early winter storm, as October could bring.

April is tax month, but it’s also warmer and generally viewed as a more optimistic time of year. Yes, farmers could be in the fields later if the election was later in the month, but it’s just a generally more pleasant time to be campaigning in Saskatchewan.

There has always been an element of superstition in politics when it comes to election dates. The Sask. Party won its last election in April, and, most significantly, the Saskatchewan NDP has never won an April election.

Moreover, it may be wise to go immediately after a “good news” pre-election budget, before voters start getting suspicious about the budget numbers ... or whatever other issues come along that might be problematic to government.

Or it may just be that creating early election speculation as the Sask. Party has done with its anti-meili TV ads is just a handy thing to do.

As per the nature of all political advertising, these ads are unfair, deliberately portraying Meili as left-wing caricature who is anti-pipeline and pro-carbon tax. There is certainly more nuance to his positions.

But in a world where all is fair in love and politics, the Sask. Party is surely going to attempt to define the Opposition leader as “not one of us” (as they successfully seemed to do with previous NDP leaders Cam Broten and Dwain Lingenfelter).

And one big advantage of this ad campaign is it feeds speculation in NDP ranks, creating uncertainty and distracting the Opposition from its tasks at hand. Such are the benefits of rumours in politics.