How to interpret COVID-19 information

SASKATOON There’s more to Saskatchewan’s COVID-19 numbers than meets the eye — and knowing the full picture is vital to understanding how to stop it.

In the past week, you’ve probably seen a lot of charts showing how many cases of COVID -19 have been reported in the province since March 12.

But it doesn’t tell the whole story behind the data. Here are some important things to remember as you pore over the numbers.

REMEMBER THE GOAL

Premier Scott Moe and chief medical health officer Dr. Saqib Shahab have been clear that between 30 and 70 per cent of Saskatchewan’s population is likely to get COVID -19 at some point.

The key is to limit the number who get it at the same time, to avoid overwhelming the health system. That means the rate of infection is more important than the total number of infected people.

Dr. Paul Masiowski, a Saskatoon neurologist who has been studying the progression of COVID -19, said it helps to think about it as a storm. You can’t stop it from coming, but by moving quickly, you can prevent yourself from being completely drenched by taking shelter.

“By staying home, you’re buying time,” Masiowski stressed in an interview.

YOU CAN ONLY COUNT WHAT YOU MEASURE

On March 25, Saskatchewan had 86 identified cases.

That’s more than 10 times more than a week before, so it might seem like there was a 10-fold increase in COVID-19, but it’s more complicated than that. In the same period, about 10 times more testing was done.

Government data only reflects the cases public health officials have been able to identify — so more testing almost always means higher numbers.

The other side of that argument is that officials likely haven’t identified every case. It was only on Tuesday that Shahab said the province would begin testing people with symptoms who had not travelled, for example.

That’s why everyone should always take the recommended precautions — keeping your distance from people and avoiding large groups — whether there are 10 reported cases or 1,000.

THE DELAY

By the time you see a chart, the actual data could have already changed.

The province’s testing lab is working overtime to process COVID -19 samples, but still takes around two days to get results.