‘Worst-case scenario’ numbers demand action

Governments prefer not to deal in worst-case scenarios, and those in health authorities are even more loath to do so.

But Tuesday’s leak of the Saskatchewan Health Authority’s “worst-case scenario” for COVID -19 is a good thing for a Saskatchewan Party government still trying to convince some that its tough measures aren’t a massive overreaction.

The image of hockey rinks turned into field hospitals and 9,000 to 15,000 of us dying is more than a wake-up call. It’s a call to action. We needed this.

And credit both the government and the SHA for not being petulant about losing control of their messaging and seizing this opportunity to underscore key central messages that to avoid this “worst-case scenario” we need to listen, keep our two-metre distance and stay the hell home.

The first thing that needs to be said about the leak to the media is no one in authority really wanted it out there. We know this because the Leader-post had specifically requested this information from government and the SHA for the very reason Tuesday’s information spill was actually successful — to tell the public what we face if we don’t take this seriously.

The second thing we need to know is the leaked Powerpoint presentation — called “COVID -19 Planning Doc: Strategy for Continuity of Health Services and Surge Capacity” and circulated a week ago — actually never used the term “worst-case scenario.”

COVID-19 will “almost certainly overwhelm the health system” because our health system is not built for the “demand for acute services that will exceed existing capacity for hospital beds,

ICU beds, ventilators as well as creating a major burden on other acute services, supports, HR, supplies, and equipment,” according to the document, which should serve as a forewarning to everyone.

The province does not have enough ventilators if we are swarmed by a peak outbreak with an influx of COVID-19 cases all at once, and the SHA’S chief medical officer Susan Shaw on Tuesday could not guarantee every severely ill person would have one in such a scenario. That said, Shaw noted more are on order, other ventilator options are available and — most importantly — she said it’s all about not only “worstcase scenarios” but simply not swamping the healthcare system by ensuring we #flattenthecurve.

And those scary numbers? As most jurisdictions likely have also done internally, it’s a model of an infection rate of roughly 30 per cent (300,000-plus Saskatchewan people infected out of 1.17 million). Frighteningly, that does suggest 9,000 to 15,000 neighbours dying.

But that’s only if we are hit like Wuhan, China was two months ago or like Spain and Italy are being hit right now by community spread but did nothing in early days. It doesn’t really take into account that Saskatchewan is not China, Spain or Italy, with large urban centres where the virus is more easily spread through things like subways.

And it sure doesn’t take into account what we are doing: working from home, keeping six feet apart in public places and being much smarter than we were two weeks ago.

Yes, we were late to the dance here in Saskatchewan, but we need not look any further than to the south to see how much worse it could actually be.

In New Orleans, the mayor suggests more than half of emergency services staff are under quarantine as Louisiana state numbers for COVID -19 surge, including 26 deaths. In New York, the death toll rose to 192 as U.S. President Donald Trump scolded Gov. Andrew Cuomo for not buying 15,000 more ventilators five years ago. In Atlanta, intensive care units are already at maximum capacity, as the Georgia state death total rose to 38 with 1,097 identified cases.

Wednesday added 14 more COVID -19 cases in Saskatchewan for a total of 86. There have been no deaths.

So the obvious solution is to keep doing what we are doing, only more of it — exactly the message the Saskatchewan government, the SHA and chief medical health officer Dr. Saqib Shahab drilled home Tuesday after the Powerpoint was leaked.

Here’s what Shahab suggested Tuesday: coronavirus is less severe than Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS, 10 per cent death rate, 2003) but far more contagious. Influenza is more contagious, but far less deadly. The coronavirus is transmitted by droplets in your mucous. Wash your hands. Stop touching your mouth, nose and face. Don’t hang around the corner and share a bag of popcorn with friends.

He’s said all this before, but it never resonated as poignantly as when uttered in the shadow of the news that deaths could be the thousands if we did nothing.

This leak is a fortuitous opportunity.

Mandryk is the political columnist for the Regina Leader-post and Saskatoon Starphoenix.