Modest restrictions creating yo-yo results
The past few months of COVID -19 restrictions in Saskatchewan have been a little like being on a diet without much exercise and not nearly enough discipline when it comes to what we eat.
Yes, we've dropped a few pounds, but not as much as we'd hoped. Worse, we're having a heck of a time keeping the weight off, leaving us a little fat, hungry and grumpy.
Is it any wonder our doctors seem peeved with us?
The good news is we are no longer packing on the numbers like we were in mid-january when our seven-day average was around 320 new cases a day, a nation-leading 26 cases per 100,000 people. (Premier Scott Moe actually described this as a case of post-christmas/new Year's binging.)
The seven-day average of 141 new cases as of Sunday (11.9 per 100,000 people) is the lowest it has been since Nov. 13. There are further reasons for optimism. Our active cases, hospitalizations and number of ICU patients have all gone down too.
Our positivity rate in testing, once consistently above 10 per cent, was 6.2 per cent on Sunday and has been even lower in recent days. The less good news is Saskatchewan's positivity rate is still higher than in the U.S. where the rate is now 4.6 per cent.
And we should be most grateful that our skyrocketing death toll significantly slowed in February and we now stand at a total of 385 COVID -19-related deaths in Saskatchewan since the start of the pandemic. That amounted to 81 deaths in February, significantly fewer than the 151 deaths in January, our deadliest month, that almost equalled Saskatchewan's entire 2020 COVID -19-related death toll of 153.
Finally, maybe we can celebrate our weekly February weigh-ins, just a little.
Sunday's numbers (seven-day average of 141 new cases per day and 11.9 new cases per 100,000) shows steady progress compared with the Sunday prior when we had a seven day average of 153 new cases and 12.6 new cases per 100,000. On the three Sundays before that, those numbers were, respectively: 167 and 13.8 (Feb. 14); 220 and 18.1 (Feb. 7); and 242 and 20 (Jan. 31).
Dropping an average of 100 new cases per day in a month is why chief medical health officer Dr. Saqib Shahab is sounding cautiously optimistic of late.
That Shahab isn't more optimistic likely has to do with him being a public health doctor aware of the longer-term trends in COVID -19 numbers, and the issue of yo-yo dieting.
Consider the longer-term numbers:
Dec. 28 — seven-day daily average of 154 new cases or 12.7 per 100,000;
Nov. 28 — daily average of 236 new cases or 19.5 per 100,000;
Oct. 28 — daily average of 59 new cases or 4.8 per 100,000;
Sept. 28 — daily average of 11 new cases or 0.9 per 100,000;
Aug. 28 — daily average of three new daily cases or 0.2 per 100,000.
Even taking into account the warmer weather that clearly reduces spread, our COVID -19 numbers have been less about “flattening the curve” (I'm sure we all remember that mantra) and has remained a little too curvy.
At this point, we also seem to have lost sight of our need to work on problem areas.
Far be it from me to offer dieting advice (imagine the body that accompanies that headshot; scratch that, please don't imagine that).
But it is passing strange that the Saskatchewan
Party government no longer views it necessary to target problem areas as it did last summer when outbreaks occurred in La Loche and on Hutterite colonies.
With an overall provincial strategy less disciplined than in other provinces, it's been a bit like leaving a few brownies on the counter, not so bad for those that aren't struggling with their weight but problematic for those that are.
Right now, we continue to struggle a bit in Saskatoon, but especially in Regina where cases have been highest for reasons Shahab and others can't quite seem to explain.
Without a more regional approach (similar to what's worked in Manitoba), the only way to target larger problem areas is tough sanctions across the province. Moe has said there would be no more provincewide lockdowns and beyond the north has been reluctant to impose regional restrictions.
Unfortunately, it means we struggle as whole, as if we are all on a diet that isn't quite working.