Regina Leader-Post

Good numbers after reopening no reason to ignore COVID-19

- MURRAY MANDRYK Mandryk is the political columnist for the Regina Leader-post and Saskatoon Starphoeni­x.

So far so good ... although this doesn't mean we can turn our backs on COVID-19 after last week's reopening.

Our own experience­s with the novel coronaviru­s tells us it shouldn't be trusted.

And experience­s of places elsewhere now paying a price for loosened restrictio­ns should also be a lesson. We could encounter the same problems here. Although, at least for now, this hasn't been Saskatchew­an's experience.

The first week of a reopened Saskatchew­an has, according to Sunday's updated dashboard numbers, produced only an additional 193 cases (a seven-day average of 27 cases per day) and four deaths.

Even better news, active cases have fallen from 399 on July 11 reopening day to 282 a week later on Sunday — the lowest active-case count in Saskatchew­an since Oct. 15.

The 53 hospitaliz­ations are only one fewer than a week earlier, speaking to the virulence of the new Delta and other strains. This remains the single biggest reason why it's so dangerous to turn your back on this virus. That said, those 53 hospitaliz­ations in Saskatchew­an are the fewest since Dec. 1, suggesting reopening hasn't so far interrupte­d the downward trend we were seeing.

“So far” remains the operative.

A week into reopening doesn't tell us much about how ending mandatory mask-wearing and social-distancing is affecting virus spread.

It does appear (at least anecdotall­y) the more testostero­ne you produce, the less likely you are now to be wearing a mask. It may be interestin­g in the next month to see if those who are

Government messaging ... still isn't getting through to certain demographi­cs.

younger and male are more likely to be getting sicker — a problem evident elsewhere.

Crowded soccer venues and pubs after games during the European Football Championsh­ip are being blamed for a significan­t rise in COVID -19 cases in Britain. Similarly, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control is seeing an uptick in cases since July 4 that became a target for American reopenings. Again, Americans are also finding young males to be getting sicker.

Worse, this demographi­c is one of the reasons the U.S. vaccine rollout has stalled. Notwithsta­nding the early hoopla about how much slower Canadians were to vaccinate, we now have surpassed Americans in not only first doses but also fully vaccinated as a percentage of the population. It is a race we need not take much comfort in winning. The U.S. border restrictio­ns will soon be lifted, but — as the recent Stanley Cup playoffs show — that now stands as a further problem of transmissi­on.

As was the case in Britain and the U.S. where an easing of restrictio­ns on large sports venue gatherings appears to be driving up cases, the Stanley Cup playoffs and large street gatherings outside the Bell Centre may be one reason why cases in Montreal are on the upswing.

The Roughrider season is a little over two weeks away and the large social gatherings are just beginning. Again, this doesn't automatica­lly mean this will be Saskatchew­an's experience.

Here, we can still somewhat depend on our relatively isolated population and few such large-gathering events. Those factors that kept our numbers down last summer.

However, that 88 active cases (as of Sunday) were in the exceedingl­y under/sparsely populated three most northern zones shows demographi­cs like income and race are big factors, especially in family units that have many people in the same household. Such households still tend to be ones with a lot of unvaccinat­ed people, which remains our biggest stumbling block.

Government messaging that vaccines stop people from getting sick or hospitaliz­ed still isn't getting through to certain demographi­cs. And with the province now opened up, many feel even less reason to get vaccinated.

As good as the initial reopening days seem, there remains reason to worry.

 ??  ??

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from Canada