Moe fares better than others on COVID, economy

If you look at the numbers, you might wonder why Premier Scott Moe and his Saskatchewan Party government are as popular as they clearly are.

Consider these numbers:

The best thing to be said about Saskatchewan's recent COVID-19 numbers is they've gotten better. The worst thing to be said is they remain near the worst. Only Yukon and Manitoba have more active COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people than Saskatchewan. Similarly, Saskatchewan's rate of unvaccinated people remains highest among the provinces.

Yet there hasn't exactly been a groundswell of opposition to Moe removing masking and social distancing restrictions. Perhaps people are just relieved to see a return to normality ... although this doesn't exactly explain the popularity hits taken by Ontario's Doug Ford, Alberta's Jason Kenney and Manitoba's Brian Pallister for their similar handling of COVID-19.

According to the Angus Reid Institute polling in June, Moe is the only one in this conservative crowd who is still among the most popular premiers in Canada.

And Moe's popularity surely isn't tied to a bubbling economy. According to the June Statistics Canada job numbers, Saskatchewan lost 6,500 jobs from May to June — troubling, in that summer is traditionally when the province's farm/ oil economy tends to soar. The good news is that while it was a 1.2-per-cent decline in the workforce from a month earlier, it was a 5.3-per-cent increase from June 2020 when we were coming out of COVID-19 lockdown. Moreover, this month's decision to reopen the province should mean soaring job numbers in July.

But all this still defies the reality that premiers always take a hit when their economy is bad — even when it's not their fault. Prolonged poor economy/job numbers performance (plus a drought) make an electorate antsy — especially when accompanied by lousy budgets and their consequences.

While Finance Minister Donna Harpauer's 2020-21 final budget numbers weren't quite as bad as initially anticipated, the 2021-22 Saskatchewan budget remains the kind no one wants to see — especially bond rating agencies. Moody's has already downgraded Saskatchewan's credit score because of the deficits and debt.

However, the news was better from DBRS Morningstar, which declared Saskatchewan to be “stable” and maintained the province's AA (low) and R-1 (middle) rating. Saskatchewan was “laying the groundwork for a strong recovery once the pandemic subsides,” the Monday DBRS Morningstar report stated.

That said, the bond-rating agency also noted the last two provincial budgets equate “to a shortfall of $3.1 billion, or 3.7 per cent of GDP” and that the “medium-term plan now targets a return to balance by 2026–27, two years later than previously expected.”

Given that during the provincial election campaign nine months ago when Moe made a lot out of the NDP platform offering no end to deficit budgeting, one might think voters would be peeved at his Sask. Party government for now doing pretty much the same thing.

One might even think voters would be angry with the Sask. Party for its political priorities that still include constant and unproductive fights with Ottawa for any and every imaginable reason or the costly and unnecessary exercise of “rebranding” the government Crown corporations with what would likely be Saskatchewan (Party) colours.

But while Moe's Sask. Party green and yellow could be surrounded by NDP orange in Manitoba and Alberta, Ryan Meili's NDP isn't a threat here.

Is it partly because the ancestral home of democratic socialism has changed that dramatically?

Is it because this particular brand of Meili-led NDP is that out-of-sync with or distasteful to the Saskatchewan electorate?

Is it because Moe has found it so easy to mine Saskatchewan's deep veins of federal government resentment, now richer than ever with a Liberal named Trudeau in Ottawa?

Or are people here simply less bothered by bad numbers than elsewhere? Maybe, as DBRS Morningstar seems to suggest, Moe is not getting enough credit for setting the stage for a “faster-than-expected economic recovery.”

Whatever the case, Moe is thriving ... even as his government's numbers suggest there is cause for concern.