Dive into census shows that looks can be deceiving

At first blush, Saskatchewan's recent Statistics Canada population numbers seemed more than just good news.

It hinted that the past 15 years of growth that took this province to 1.18 million people may have finally cracked Saskatchewan's problem of seeing only old people in the mirror.

Saskatchewan has more children under 15 years old than people 65 and older, according to 2021 census — welcome news for a Prairie province long-defined as perpetually losing its children to other places.

In this province, 19.7 per cent of people are 15 years and younger — well above the national average of 16.3 per cent.

A deeper dive into the Statistics Canada numbers on its website seemed even more pleasing to the eye: Our 0.1-per-cent growth between 2016 and 2021 in the kids' category was the best among provinces (tied with Quebec and one of only two provinces that grew in this category).

Even our numbers of older people — comparatively speaking — didn't seem all that bad.

While those more than 65 years old made up 17.5 per cent of Saskatchewan, the highest percentage on the Prairies, it was third best in a nation with national average of 19 per cent 65 seniors. In fact, our two-per-cent growth rate in this category was below the national average.

Besides, Canada as a whole is aging ... albeit, also getting younger at the same time. (Among G7 countries, Canada has the third lowest rate of seniors with only the U.S. and Great Britain having proportionally fewer people 65+ and the second-youngest population behind the U.S. with its higher fertility rate.)

The numbers seem to suggest Saskatchewan has become a better, younger version of Canada — great news at a time when this country is seeing new job opportunities with the bulging demographic of baby boomers at or nearing retirement.

Sadly, looks can be deceiving ... especially, if we are determined to deceive ourselves.

Saskatchewan is now a Dorian Gray portrait: We may appear younger but our soul is still captured somewhere in that Depression-era painting.

Consider the critical working, consuming and income/tax-generating demographic of 15- to 64-year-olds: The numbers show Saskatchewan at 62.8 per cent — lowest in the country among provinces (tied with New Brunswick) and falling like everyone else.

We remain captured by our rural nature: While Regina and Saskatoon have become two of Canada's youngest cities, the same can't be said for our smaller cities and rural communities.

Keeping our working-age people remains as big a challenge for Saskatchewan as ever — perhaps only exceeded by finding resources to care for the elderly.

“This is something that we pay very close attention to. (We are) watching the demographics of this province,” Seniors Minister Everett Hindley said last week, noting adequate long-term care is needed everywhere.

Adding to the problem is that seniors in our province with the wealth tend to retire elsewhere to escape our winters. Parksville and Qualicum Beach, B.C. — among the most-elderly places in Canada — are filled with seniors with stories of Prairie winters.

As for Saskatchewan's higher fertility rates, it's largely driven by the economically disadvantaged First Nations and immigrant communities — the former that's less mobile and still struggling with high unemployment and the latter perhaps eager to pull up stakes for better job opportunities ... or escape the country's lowest minimum wage.

And what about our prospects of holding on to young, working people?

Well, while Alberta supposedly had it a lot worst during the oil bust of the past five years, it's doing better at holding on to those in that always critical 15-to-64 age demographic.

Four in five people living in downtown Calgary are between 15 and 64 years. It's part of the old Saskatchewan story that sees many of them waving green flags when the Roughriders come to town.

One wishes the recent census was as good as it initially appeared, but the numbers are telling us that by 2036 Saskatchewan will again have more people 65 years and older than children 15 years and younger.

Like in real life, we may be only fooling ourselves if we think we are getting younger.