Moe's success down to knowing what voters want

It's rather bizarre to think that the last provincial election just four short years ago was fought and won by the Saskatchewan Party on the notion of fiscal responsibility.

Of course, the campaign wasn't exclusively about that ... or exclusively why Scott Moe secured a fourth term for his Saskatchewan Party government. Really, it was just one of several complexities Moe had to finesse his way through.

For instance, at the time there was that messy little matter of a global pandemic in which a still-in-its-infancy movement opposing vaccines and lockdowns would propel the Buffalo Party to a surprising showing.

What was intriguing, however, is how Moe remained an advocate of COVID-19 vaccine requirements and restriction measures until the shifting of a political tide in late 2021 to early 2022 suggested that position was becoming too politically costly.

That's how Moe has rolled. It's an approach that's generally worked for him.

Consider his 2020 campaign foray into fiscal responsibility after the release of an NDP platform that promised to spend more than the Sask. Party and with four deficit budgets.

Moe and the Sask. Party offered to spend less and promised to balance the books by this year's budget.

As it turned out, Moe did balance the books in a billion-dollar, big way in 2022-23, — largely the result of a humongous potash revenue windfall after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Unfortunately, last year's 2023-24 budget was back in the red, where we are predicted to remain this year and perhaps beyond.

Now, one might think that Saskatchewan voters who re-elected Moe's party because they thought four years ago that the books would be balanced would be alarmed by this fiscal record.

Certainly, new NDP Leader Carla Beck is reminding pre-2024 election voters that public debt in Saskatchewan has skyrocketed to $31.5 billion — an additional $14 billion since Moe became premier in 2018. Certainly, we all should be a little concerned that we now shell out $911.5 million in debt service costs before spending a penny on roads, schools and hospitals.

Yet there's not much to indicate Moe is all that threatened by this. Finance Minister Donna Harpauer said the premier encouraged her to spend more. Why? He recognizes the electorate has moved on.

It's perhaps Moe's most overlooked political skill: His ability to read what's important to his voters and predict just how long it will remain important.

Moe's critics contend there's no leadership skill in ignoring complex, long-term problems and appealing to voters' in-the-moment self-interest.

It can be argued that this is why, under Moe's watch, we have had some of the worst COVID-19 outcomes, massive increases to the debt and no discernible policy strategy or targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

But like it or not, the art of getting elected is about paying just enough attention to these difficult issues at the right time ... or at least until voters view any collective problem as less important than their own self-interest.

Has Moe always been spot on? Hardly. In fact, the book is still out on whether he is now seen as having pandered too much to the far right by vilifying striking teachers or in allowing Bill 137 to expose LGBTQ+ students to less-than-understanding parents.

And many are growing weary — even embarrassed — by his bullheaded performance on the national stage when a more co-operative approach would have been more productive and beneficial.

But while his Sask. Party will lose seats for the first time, is there an issue that will cost him the election?

Removing COVID -19 restrictions? Yes, people once supported them, but not so much after vaccines made the virus less life-threatening.

The debt? Yes, we all know it's bad, but most want government programs or lower taxes instead.

Opposing carbon pricing? Even if Ottawa could convince people it's reducing GHG emissions or that Climate Action Incentive Payments (CAIP) benefit 80 per cent of Canadians, Moe knows telling Saskatchewan people to give up their F-150s has always been a non-starter.

Essentially, Moe understands the nature of Saskatchewan voters better than most.