Study projects growing demand for commercial space flights
CAPE CANAVERAL — Commercial suborbital space flights should bring in between $600 million and $1.6 billion in revenue in their first decade of operations, according to a study commissioned by the U.S. and Florida govern - ments and released on Wednesday.
Tourism drives about 80 per cent of the demand for suborbital flights, which reach about 100 km above the planet’s surface before plunging back through the atmosphere.
The thrill ride gives flyers a few minutes to float in microgravity and a view of the Earth set against the blackness of space.
Virgin Galactic, an offshoot of Richard Branson’s London-based Virgin Group, is one of six firms developing reusable suborbital spaceships, an analysis by The Tauri Group of Alexandria, Virginia, found.
Prices currently range from $200,000 for a ride on Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo, a six-passenger, two-pilot vehicle currently undergoing testing, to $95,000 for a flight on privately held XCOR Aerospace’s planned two-seater Lynx vehicle.
Virgin Galactic, which is aiming to begin commercial service around 2014, already has $70 million in deposits from 536 people, Chief Executive George Whitesides said at a related congressional hearing on Wednesday.
The Tauri Group believes there are about another 7,500 wealthy people waiting in the wings.
“Our analysis indicates that about 8,000 high-networth individuals from across the globe are sufficiently interested and have spending patterns likely to result in the purchase of a suborbital flight — one-third from the United States,” the report said.
“We estimate that about 40 per cent of the interested, high-net-worth population, or 3,600 individuals, will fly within the 10-year forecast,” it added.
The study, which included surveys of 200 people with a net worth of least $5 million, valued the fledgling industry at $600 million in its first de- cade, based on current market conditions and interest.
The market could be worth nearly three times that if marketing and consumer in- terest grows in the wake of successful flights, the study said.
“Further potential could be realized through price reductions and unpredictable achievements such as major research discoveries, the identification of new commercial applications, the emergence of global brand value and new government (especially military) uses for suborbital reusable vehicles,” the study stated.
After tourists, the next biggest group of potential users are in the research community. Other potential markets include technology flight demonstrations, media and public relations, education, satellite launching, remote sensing and suborbital travel from one destination to another, a technology that is likely beyond the study’s 10year time frame.
The $277,000 study, titled Suborbital Reusable Vehicles: A Ten-Year Forecast of Market Demand, was paid for by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, which oversees commercial space flight.