Mulcair the architect of his own misfortune
Opposition leader Tom Mulcair has been working tirelessly for nearly a year to position his New Democrats as the government in waiting, and himself as a future prime minister. Thursday both those objectives grew measurably more difficult to achieve.
With the defection of Quebec NDP MP Claude Patry to the moribund but apparently still kicking Bloc Quebecois, it now becomes clear that Mulcair is fighting on three fronts to hold the historic gains made by his party in the 2011 election. Never mind building on those gains: Mulcair will be putting out this fire for the foreseeable future, focusing on the preservation of his Quebec beachhead. Even that is no longer a foregone conclusion. There’s Justin Trudeau to consider.
The truly aggravating thing for Mulcair here must be the realization that he brought this on himself with his ill-considered bid to “improve on” the federal Clarity Act in January. That was a battle of choice, not necessity. He could have left well enough alone. Now the damage is done, and its ripple effects are spreading.
Consider how humbly it began, with Bill C-457, initiated by Bloc MP Andre Bellavance. Had that passed — it was never more than a goad, on account of the Bloc holding, at that time, four seats — it would have repealed the law that sets the terms for separation. Among other measures, the Clarity Act states Canada cannot entertain such negotiations absent a clear majority, voting on a clear question.
Though the act does not define precisely what this means — one of its flaws — that is commonly held to mean a majority of 60 per cent, perhaps as much as two thirds. Drafted and passed in the panic-stricken aftermath of the 1995 referendum, the Clarity Act is prized by many federalists as a bulwark against a sneak attempt at breaking up the country. It has also often been noted that separatist sentiment in Quebec has steadily declined since the law was enacted.
It makes sense therefore that the New Democrats, being federalists, would oppose the Bloc’s bid to abolish it — which they did, alongside the Liberals and governing Conservatives.
Only the NDP didn’t stop there. Democratic Reform critic Craig Scott proceeded, with his leader’s blessing, to propose a new and improved Coca-Cola called the Unity Bill, allowing for separation following a referendum vote of 50 per cent, plus one. That was intellectually honest, because it put the NDP’s stance on Clarity officially in line with its 2005 Sherbrooke Declaration, which hews to 50 plus one. But it was politically stupid.
The backlash was immediate. In Ontario and the West the Unity Bill was deemed a transparent attempt to curry favour with Quebec nationalists, while rekindling old debates for which a majority of Canadians outside Quebec no longer have the slightest appetite. Within Quebec, many anglophones deemed it a betrayal. Why had Mulcair not simply ignored the Bloc proposal, or skated past it? For in proposing his own “unity” bill, he provided the nationalists with a target. As we see this week, even the NDP’s proposed law, by the very fact that it presupposes the Parliament of Canada has a right to set conditions, any conditions, on Quebec separation, is too colonialist for some. Hence, Patry’s departure after, he said, much soul-searching.
Mulcair now must work internally to ensure there are no further defections from other soul-searchers. But how will he do this? It seems unlikely his interests will broaden nationally. Far more plausible is that the NDP’s field of vision narrows ever more closely on Quebec — preserving its bread and butter. This tendency can only deepen once the fluently francophone Trudeau becomes leader of the Liberal party.
But in the rest of Canada, voters are also watching closely. Mulcair’s strategy to grow the NDP was built on the premise that he can persuade Ontarians, hardpressed by a declining manufacturing economy, to join with Quebecers and Atlantic Canadians, against those cigar-chomping, cowboybooted Albertans — thus, Dutch disease. But there’s little evidence to suggest this is working. On the contrary, Mulcair’s oil-patch-bashing has mostly fallen flat, or been panned, including by the governor of the Bank of Canada.
Hence, three fronts: In Alberta the NDP fights a rearguard action against Big Oil, designed to ingratiate it with Ontarians. But many Ontarians are not enticed. Rather, they’re worried about what a Mulcair government would do to the goose that lays the golden eggs. Further, they’re annoyed now by the prospect of more Quebec constitutional wrangling. That’s Front 2. Front 3 is soft nationalist Quebec, where a suddenly reinvigorated Bloc now nips at Mulcair’s heels, threatening to spirit away more of his caucus unless he battles more effectively for “la nation” Quebecoise.
Simply put, it’s a mess, and one of Mulcair’s own making — with a deft assist from the Bloc, which lacks even official party status. Extrication, without further losses or splintering of his caucus, will not be easy. It will be the first big test of his leadership.