Report says Canada drifting away from PM’s climate change target

OTTAWA — Canada is drifting further away from meeting Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s international climate change target, mainly because of rising greenhouse gases from oil and gas companies, according to a new federal report released by Environment Canada Thursday with little fanfare.

The report, an annual assessment of emissions trends, estimates that Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 are projected to total 734 million tonnes, which is about 14 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions above what was estimated last year — an increase of two per cent.

But the report also shows that emissions are projected to drop in areas such as road vehicles and electricity generation, where the government has introduced regulations and standards to reduce tailpipe pollution as well as emissions from coal-fired power plants.

Some other key numbers from the report: Oilsands emissions, the fastest-growing source of carbon pollution in Canada, are projected to rise from an estimated 34 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions in 2005 to 101 million tonnes in 2020. Apart from Alberta (295 million tonnes) and Ontario (177 million tonnes), no province or territory is projected to have a higher level of emissions than the oilsands sector in 2020, with Quebec coming the closest at 81 million tonnes for that year, followed by Saskatchewan at 74 million tonnes and British Columbia at 64 million tonnes.

■ Greenhouse gas emissions from personal cars, trucks and motorbikes are projected to drop from 87 million tonnes in 2005 to about 81 million tonnes in 2020.

■ Emissions from buildings in Canada will rise from 84 million tonnes in 2005 to 95 million tonnes in 2020.

■ Emissions from the electricity sector are projected to drop from 121 million tonnes in 2005 to 82 million tonnes in 2020.

■ The report increases the estimated level of Harper’s 2020 target from 607 million tonnes to 612 million tonnes.

■ In its summary, the report — which described climate change as “one of the most important environmental issues of our time” — suggested the Harper government was still on track to meet the prime minister’s target, from international negotiations at a 2009 conference in Copenhagen, to lower annual emissions by 17 per cent below 2005 levels by 2020.

“Effective climate change mitigation requires that all countries act to reduce emissions, and, accordingly, Canada will continue to make progress toward its Copenhagen target,” the report said.

Since its election in 2006, The Harper government has repeatedly pledged to introduce new regulations to crack down on pollution from the oil and gas sector, but those rules were subsequently delayed by successive Conservative environment ministers.

The report, which is usually released in the middle of summer with a technical briefing from bureaucrats, and a news conference from the environment minister, was quietly posted on the department’s website this time.