Country faces questions about sovereignty
OTTAWA — Amid the allconsuming debate over the Senate expenses affair since Parliament’s return in midOctober, another thorny political question has been playing out almost unnoticed: the issue of Quebec independence and what constitutes support for separatism.
With Quebec Premier Pauline Marois declaring she will not call a snap election before the end of the year, two federal parties may have just dodged a bullet on it.
Last week, news emerged that the federal government will intervene in a court challenge of Bill 99, a Quebec law passed 13 years ago asserting the province’s right to decide the rules of separation on its own, without having to negotiate those rules with the rest of Canada.
News also emerged that at least one Harper cabinet minister supported the sovereigntist movement’s longstanding view that it would take only 50-per-cent-plusone vote among Quebecers to make secession happen.
That, in turn, drew attention back to the fact that this narrow margin — one vote — is also the official position of the official Opposition NDP in Parliament. Here’s the plot so far: How likely is another Quebec referendum?
Not likely in the immediate future. Marois knows she won’t get far on sovereignty with a minority government. Even with the animated debate she has sparked through Quebec’s proposed charter of values, she says she won’t call a snap election in 2013.
But the Parti Quebecois has enjoyed considerable success by making an enemy of the federal government, rather than of its adversaries in Quebec’s National Assembly. In fact, all parties in the provincial legislature just voted to denounce the Harper government’s intervention in the court challenge of Quebec’s Bill 99.
How do Quebecers feel about the secession process?
The rules of secession remain vague. Some say a vote of 50-per-cent-plus-one is a clear majority. Others say that’s too low, given the implications of any province leaving Canada. They point to potential issues about low voter turnout, electoral irregularities, whether the referendum question is clear or murky (as many thought it was in 1995), and whether the federal or provincial government should write or approve it.
But while the rest of Canada worries about technicalities, Bruce Hicks, a Quebec political scientist now at Carleton University in Ottawa, says Quebecers don’t.
Whatever the question, they know voting “yes” is a vote for sovereignty and they’re more concerned with what an independent Quebec would look like, he says. They also understand independence hinges on international support and recognition, and Quebec won’t get that if just 50 per cent plus one voter ticks “yes,” or if turnout is low.
How do Canadians feel about Quebec?
Ipsos Reid pollster Darrel Bricker says Canadians are “less concerned” today about accommodating Quebec than they were in the past. Still, he says Canadians do expect the federal government to defend the interests of a united Canada and to speak up when they’re under attack — as in the case of Bill 99. So what’s sticky? After the last referendum, the federal government — then led by the Liberals — passed the federal Clarity Act, which demands a clear majority respond to a clear question. But last week, Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Quebec lieutenant, Denis Lebel, said in two interviews that he felt 50-percent-plus-one was enough for Quebec to secede. A second Quebec minister danced around his views. Harper responded to questions about this by saying it was a matter for the courts.
So the opposition must have gone after the Conservatives pretty hard over this?
Er, no. Actually, the opposition NDP also supports the 50-per-cent-plus one principle. The NDP’s 2005 Sherbrooke Declaration maintains a simple majority is enough to trigger secession talks and that Quebec’s National Assembly should formulate the question.
An NDP bill tabled in January seeks to replace the federal Clarity Act. It reiterates the 50-plus-one threshold, though it adds Parliament must be satisfied the question is clear and the vote fair.
Why does the federal NDP side with the Quebec government on this point?
The NDP has 58 of Quebec’s 75 seats. Bricker says NDP Leader Tom Mulcair must “walk between the raindrops” on matters of sovereignty if he wants to keep his stronghold in Quebec.
While some say the NDP’s position doesn’t resonate outside Quebec and could hurt the party at the polls in other parts of Canada, Nova Scotia New Democrat Peter Stoffer disagrees. In 16 years on Parliament Hill, he says he’s had but a handful of questions from constituents on Quebec secession.